First Mover: 10 Takeaways for Bitcoin From Negative Oil Prices

White Swan came, Black Swan's a comin'

Like many here, I'm trying to come up with an investment thesis and a strategy for these uncertain times. I'm currently Bearish - have gone largely to cash, but want to invest in defensive plays because I see much more uncertainty ahead. So this long and rambling post is going to try to play with some ideas I've been having about the future. For the record, I've been investing for 8 years, was primarily an ETF buy and hold investor, and am Canadian, with a background in Political Science. ( I mean, I've got an undergraduate degree and a long-time interest, I'm no expert or nothing.)
I've read Nassim Taleb's Incerto series and have been mainly convinced, I think, and am surprised at the number of people who are calling this a Black Swan (BS) event; there's a post from today where a guy points out that it's not, and that Taleb himself says it's not and he got downvoted to hell. So first off: the Covid-19 pandemic was not a Black Swan. The Covid-19 pandemic, or one like it, has been predicted by damn near everybody for decades. The Obama administration even used a similar pandemic as a war game to get the Trump administration up to speed during the transition, Bill Gates called this years ago, we had a similar outbreak in SARS and H1N1, etc. Even if that wasn't the case, C19 would only be a BS for China - as a bunch of media sources have pointed out, there were US intelligence reports as far back as December saying this would be a huge deal, which were ignored by the administration. So all the suggestions that this is a BS event are really just pointing out how bad many governments, markets, and corporations are at predicting the future - they're unable to predict or prepare, or respond appropriately for a predictable event and only capable of reacting (with the exception of some countries like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany...)
Now with the market rallying the bulls are all saying "it's priced in, you can't fight the Fed, etc," and I'm thinking:
1) The emperor has no clothes; the US government is clearly incompetent. It couldn't even listen to it's own experts about the likely extent of the pandemic, had no plan or even seemingly the ability to be at all proactive. For example, an aircraft carrier had a port call in Vietnam, during the middle of a pandemic that started in Asia. Then, completely predictably, it had an outbreak of C19 and it's capabilities were badly damaged and the administration couldn't even properly help it's own ship, nor manage the public relations fallout that resulted. I mean, do you have any idea how insane it is that that ship was allowed to dock during a pandemic? One of the most powerful military devices that ever existed got taken off line cause the administration couldn't understand it's own intelligence.
This incompetence isn't limited to the US of course - the UK handled their initial response badly and had to switch horses mid-race, Canada lagged badly responding as well, Italy and Spain mismanaged their response - but I'd argue that the US, given their advantages in intelligence collection, should have been best positioned to deal with this crisis so I focus on them.
2) Because of this, I think the odds of a real Black Swan event have gone up considerably, and if one does occur, it will occur when the US is historically divided and weakened and where it's economic system is out of ammunition to deal with a second crisis. I'll explain:
We have been living at at time when major geopolitical disruptions have been absent - while proxy wars and minor terrorist attacks still occur, there's been no wars between great powers for some time, and I think many have come to see this as natural; that the unipolar world will continue. But Russia is resurgent, China has a 50 year plan to grow its economy and eventually take a place as a hegemon, which may be entering end-game, and much of the Western international community has grown uncomfortable with US leadership, given the American tendency to elect incompetent Republicans. So we're likely entering an era of uncertainty and increased instability as the contenders vie for status in the new international order.
This doesn't mean war or open combat - it's become a cliche that the new wars of the 21st century are economic ones, and, given nuclear proliferation that's likely to continue. And I think we're more likely to see significant economic combat in the next 6 months than at almost any time during the last decade, because: 1) Trump is incompetent (and here I should stop just shitting on Republicans... the Dems have picked a 77 year old half senile fool to go up against him. I mean, looking at the two guys contending for the leadership of the most powerful country that has ever existed, it's hard to come away thinking that this is the sign of a healthy political system.)
2)America is weak (relatively speaking obviously, they're still the undisputed big swinging dick) and divided.
3)Because of C19 hits to economy, Trump may not be re-elected. I suspect that if it looked likely that he's re-elected, China at least would be content to sit quiet and wait for 4 more years of dumbasserry to take its toll on US hegemony - similarly with Russia. But if it looks like he'll lose come November, they'll take advantage.
What would that economic war look like? Lots of options that I see, and I'm curious if you guys see other ones. I mean, what would it look like if China dumped treasuries over the next 7 months? Or what would happen if China and Russia, or even OPEC+ decided to trade oil in non-US dollars? Or what if China leverages foreign aid to African and Asian countries hard-hit by C19 for long term trade deals designed to damage US interests? Iran and North Korea are additionally wild cards, and if either one is hard hit by C19 could go down flailing with unpredictable results. Any others I'm missing? Curious to hear other's ideas.
Now, note I'm not saying that odds of economic war with China or any other US adversary are likely; I'm saying if the odds of a geopolitical Black Swan were usually 5% in any given year of the last twenty, I suspect the odds of a major BS have gone up 4 or 5 fold - so like 20-30%. And I'm wondering, given unlimited QE, zero interest rates almost everywhere, central banks everywhere supporting stock and currency markets, etc -- what a defensive portfolio, preferably one that's still exposed to positive black swans like a sudden cure, would look like. Is it gold or silver? Cash? Bitcoin? I've already got enough guns and bullets and a bunker... just kidding about the bunker.
But seriously, I'm thinking something like 10-20% PMs and miners, 20% cash, 20% bonds and the rest equity ETFs of some countries likely to benefit from a stronger and more dominant China, like South Korea and Australia. Given Chinese dishonesty and the opacity of the financial system, investing directly in Chinese companies makes me nervous, though I've been considering a stake in BABA. Canada, it seems to me, is too joined at the hip with the USA to do anything other than follow where it goes.
Anyways, if you stuck with me through all that, thanks and I'd love to hear other's thoughts. I'm absolutely not a prepper nor prone to panic -- I just think we're living in real interesting times and the times are likely to get interestinger in the near future.
submitted by Davidallencoen to investing [link] [comments]

I HATE being right

I was right about COVID-19, been following this cluster-f since mid January. I was right about shale oil/fracking. OPEC can kill that industry in an instant by lowering their prices. I was right about bitcoin. Bitcoin is nowhere near decoupled from our economy and infrastructure.
I'm probably right about "green energy" being a complex scheme to externalize true fossil fuel inputs. I'm probably right that we can only feed a small fraction of our current world population without fossil fuel.
And I hate it! I wish the world as a complex system was more resilient than this. :(
submitted by QuilsMangentBrioche to collapse [link] [comments]

Hourly News Update

SPX 3111.75| NASDAQ 9981.75| DOW 26107.0| OIL 40.76
submitted by TradeFlags to tradeflags [link] [comments]

From $10367 to $9500, we are always looking for reasons for Bitcoin’s ups and downs

In the early hours of June 2nd, Beijing time, Bitcoin jumped up, the amplitude reached 8.69%, and once reached 10367.3 US dollars. The market enthusiasm was instantly ignited.
There are countless transactions in the spot market, almost changing this week’s “dead”, Coinbase “under normal circumstances” under the siege of investors.
After the air force exploded, many military explosions
Compared with the spot market, the contract market, as always, has disappeared in the smoke. As of press time, the long position was 371 million US dollars, and the short position was 354 million US dollars. Both of them opened at 55. This morning, the short position was 344 million US dollars, accounting for 97% of the total.
This shows that during the rise of bitcoin, many investors believe that bitcoin will continue to rise, and more open orders than open orders. However, the ideal is very full, the reality is too skinny, one day’s ups and downs, bitcoin did not rise and fall, and neither the army nor the air force won.
Who really won?
Is it the downtime Coinbase, or the promoters behind it?

https://preview.redd.it/ytckzz4qo0351.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcb540286d7dce220b3c884a51f0ee52bfa54786
This morning, Bitcoin rushed to 10,000 US dollars, and countless big V, analysts, and experienced experts jumped out to guide the operation and explain the reason for the rise of Bitcoin. Most analysts spoke, optimistic about Bitcoin, thinking that Bitcoin will not fall again if it breaks 10,000 US dollars, and 10,000 US dollars is the new fulcrum.
Is this really the case?
Various excuses for ups and downs In combination with reality, many people believe that the protests and marches in the United States have caused Bitcoin and gold to rise rapidly.
This reminds me of two very similar incidents, the US-Iran conflict (US sanctions against Iran, Iran’s military defense), and the oil price crisis (OPEC, Russia, and US tripartite game). These two incidents are sudden and accidental. One can anticipate how the situation will develop. Bitcoin and gold are instigating a sharp rise and a rapid decline, and finally the situation is contained.
American parade, British parade, New Zealand parade, Japanese parade, Australian parade… In the end, parades erupt in the world. Parade return to parade does not necessarily affect the circulation of stock markets, funds, and currency markets. The operation of capital markets does not rely on these pushes.

https://preview.redd.it/tud7yr8to0351.jpg?width=528&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81fffc8d4cf546b57f5936605d47a21a3f1ebc15
New York is the world’s four largest financial centers, and US stocks have maintained an upward trend in 7 consecutive days of demonstrations and continuous epidemics, indicating that capitalists’ hearts are much stronger than ours, and the global epidemic cannot stop US stocks, not to mention a parade (the United States has almost Every year there was a march due to black prejudice, but their situation has not changed so far).
The so-called “American President Donald Trump mobilizes local police and National Guard to disperse protesters”, “American police still violently enforce laws to disperse protesters”, “guns and helicopters continue to be near the White House” As a reason for Bitcoin’s rise.
The parade took place as early as 7 days ago, why is Bitcoin rising now? Why did bitcoin fall back to its original appearance within a day, did the parade end? Is the epidemic over? No, not at all. There are two reasons for the rise of Bitcoin. One is that the market needs a message to inspire, everyone is the promoter; second, the promoters are responsible for pushing.
Bitcoin day trip, who won? The retail investors won, and did not. Those who bought bitcoin were either locked or cut; the contract won and the shorts exploded and the longs exploded.
However, the winner has gone far, leaving us to discuss, what impact will bitcoin have today?
submitted by 41caijing to u/41caijing [link] [comments]

Ouch!

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 03/06

The Dow fell 256.50, or 0.98%, to 25,864.78 , the Nasdaq lost 162.98, or 1.87%, to 8,575.62 , and the S&P 500 declined 51.57, or 1.71%, to 2,972.37.

The stock market ended a volatile week on a lower note with the S&P 500 (-1.7%) settling just above its low from Monday. The benchmark index gained 0.6% for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) outperformed, gaining 1.8% since last Friday.
In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls surged 273,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, which matches a five-decade low. Average hourly earnings grew 3.0% year-over-year. While a very strong report, it appears to be discounted because of the coronavirus, though it provides evidence that the U.S. economy was on solid footing before it hit. The trade deficit narrowed 6.7% to $45.3B in January as exports dipped 0.4% to $208.6B and imports dropped 1.6% to $253.9B. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in January, but sales jumped 1.6%.
In energy news, Reuters reported that OPEC's plans for prolonged oil cuts have been derailed as Russia refused to support the move contending it is too early to predict the effect of coronavirus on global energy demand. WTI crude for April delivery fell $4.62, or 10.1%, to end at $41.28 a barrel following the news of the OPEC blow-up. Also, Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. rig count is up 3 rigs from last week to 793.
The final session of the week was marred by a continued deterioration of sentiment due to the ongoing spread of the coronavirus while the pressure on growth expectations intensified. Treasuries essentially never stopped after Thursday's cash close, continuing their forceful charge in the overnight futures market. Treasuries did pull back from their highs in midday trade, but the long bond rallied to a fresh record high in the afternoon while the 10-yr note stopped a bit short of its best level of the day. The 10-yr yield fell 22 basis points to 0.71%, representing a 42-basis point drop for the week.
Expectations for another sharp rate cut remain in place with the fed funds futures market pointing to a 56.0% implied likelihood of a 75-basis point rate cut at or before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on March 18.
The S&P 500 staged a 70-point rally during the final hour of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all eleven sectors finished in the red.
Four groups surrendered 2.0% or more. Energy (-5.6%) and financials (-3.3%) were particularly weak throughout the day due to their exposure to growth and concerns about issuers of high-yield debt in the energy sector.
Bank stocks suffered from the drop in Treasury yields while energy companies struggled as oil fell $4.57, or 10.0%, to $41.32/bbl. The energy component ended the day at its lowest level since mid-2016 after OPEC+ could not agree to a sharp production cut despite yesterday's reports to the contrary. Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ countries are free to pump at will starting from April 1.
Shares of JPM were sharply lower amid the pullback in the market, though the bank's declines may also be made worse by news that CEO Jamie Dimon experienced an acute aortic dissection and underwent successful emergency heart surgery to repair the health issue. Co-Presidents and Chief Operating Officers Daniel Pinto and Gordon Smith will lead the company as Dimon recovers, the bank confirmed.
Shares of AAPL were lower after a fourth supplier cut guidance amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. ON cut its first quarter revenue outlook this morning, becoming the fourth Apple supplier to cut guidance this week after QRVO, SWKS and MCHP did so as well.
In company-specific news, COST reported better than expected Q2 results, but the stock still finished lower. AMD fared better than the broader market after reaffirming its guidance for FY20. The chipmaker did caution that Q1 results are likely to be on the low end of its guidance.
Among the noteworthy gainers were MRNA and OPK, which have each recently reported on efforts linked to combating the coronavirus. Airline stocks like ALK +4.0%, JBLU +0.1%), UAL, +1.0%, and DAL, +2.0% recorded gains on Friday after recovering from fresh multi-year lows. Alaska Air did warn that its guidance for FY20 should no longer be relied upon due to coronavirus-related uncertainty.
Among the notable losers was AOBC, which fell 30% after the gunmaker reported fiscal Q3 results below consensus and guidance. SBUX shares slid 1% after the company provided an update on the impact related to COVID-19 in China. Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull said the earnings impact to Starbucks' fiscal Q2 is likely larger than he projected, be he also pointed out that Starbucks noted there has been no perceptible impact from COVID-19 on the U.S. business.
Shares of cruise operators started the day in positive territory but retreated as the day went on. NCLH, -5.2% was the weakest performer of the bunch, stopping just above its record low (24.16) that was notched when the company went public in early 2013.
European stocks also fell sharply Friday as the coronavirus outbreak continues to impact businesses worldwide.

Currency

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.9% to 95.98 and was down 2.2% for the week as rate-cut expectations boiled over. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 63% probability of a 75 basis points cut.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries had another huge day as the stock market racked up another day of huge losses amid ongoing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and budding credit worries. The 10-yr yield, which settled Thursday at 0.93%, went as low as 0.66% in today's curve-flattening trade before losing some steam.

Commodity

Oil prices plunged more than 8% to multi-year lows on Friday as OPEC’s allies rejected additional production cuts that the organization proposed Thursday. The meeting between OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, concluded with no deal on additional production cuts.
Agriculture:

Crypto

As global equity markets continue to get pummeled, bitcoin’s return to the $9,000 level may have been driven by some of the same forces causing a rally in bonds – a desire for respite from a coronavirus-plagued markets.

Bonds, Virus and Valuation

The move in Treasuries has been precipitated by flight-safety flows that have been fueled by economic growth concerns stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. It has also been stoked by momentum, interest rate differentials, and policy stimulus expectations, the latter of which have also been nothing short of stunning.
The CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 64% probability of a 75 basis points cut.
Those expectations capture the view that the coronavirus isn't "just another flu." It might have similar characteristics, but when was the last time entire cities were quarantined, professional sporting events were canceled, travel restrictions were imposed, orchestrated efforts to force employees to work from home, states of emergency were declared, U.S. schools were closed, and the Federal Reserve ushered in an emergency 50 basis points rate cut because of the flu?
Coronavirus is quite different from the flu because the reaction to it has been universally different -- and that reaction is what gets lost in the debate as to whether the coronavirus is "just another flu." Rightly or wrongly, the coronavirus is creating an economic disruption in a manner no normal flu has in our modern age and that is the important distinction for the capital markets and policymakers.
It's another reason why the strong employment report for February has been glossed over for the most part by the market. At any other time, the Treasury market would be selling off on today's report, and, arguably, the futures market would be moving sharply higher -- but this isn't any other time.
The key takeaway from the report isn't what was in the report, it was the lackluster response to it, which is a function of expecting employment reports in coming months not to look as good because of the coronavirus impact.
The market multiple has contracted to 16.7x, which is now in-line with the five-year average -- only it isn't because earnings estimates are going to fall further.

YTD

  • FAAMG + some penny stocks -4.4% YTD
  • Spoos -8.0% YTD
  • Old man -9.4% YTD
  • Russy -13.1% YTD
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.18 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

Takeaways for Bitcoin From Negative Oil Prices

1) In the short term, falling oil prices are deflationary. Drivers will need less money to pay for gasoline once they return to driving. Airlines will pay less for jet fuel. Plastics manufacturers will see lower input costs. More broadly, for bitcoin traders who see the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation the oil-price crash offers a warning of how deflationary the coronavirus-driven economic recession might turn out to be – despite trillions of dollars of money injections from the Federal Reserve and other central banks.
2) As a commodity, bitcoin doesn’t have storage considerations like oil – or physical delivery issues like gold. Futures markets with physical delivery require traders to come up with the goods if they own a contract going into the expiration date. There’s little likelihood that delivering bitcoin would ever collide with physical capacity constraints.
“The oil markets are yet another inefficient legacy system that needs to be disrupted,” Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of Arca Funds, wrote in an email. “The fact that it is physically impossible to take delivery of a barrel of oil shows that this system, like many, is completely broken and in need of change.”
3) Amid this year’s economic and market turmoil, bitcoin is holding up. A study published last week by researchers at the Federal Reserve’s Kansas City branch noted that historically, 10-year U.S. Treasury notes have worked well as a safe-haven asset “consistently,” gold “occasionally” and bitcoin “never.” But so far this year, bitcoin is down just 3.8 percent – nearly holding its own against the Fed’s own U.S. dollar. Gold is up 12 percent, but the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of U.S. stocks is down 13 percent. Oil’s price crash makes bitcoin look stable by comparison.
“For all those who’ve challenged bitcoin’s use as a store of value or the narrative that bitcoin hasn’t held its value all that well during the crisis, I beg to differ,” Mati Greenspan, founder of the cryptocurrency and foreign-exchange analysis firm Quantum Economics, wrote in an email to clients.
4) A bitcoin exchange-traded fund application might now compare favorably with oil ETFs. Bitcoin prices tumbled 40 percent on March 12 as investors and traders across all financial markets scrambled into cash. Such volatility underscore the risks of cryptocurrency markets, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has thus far refused to approve a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). (Aside from high volatility, the market has also been hit by market-manipulation allegations.) But the oil market, which has several approved ETFs , operates in the shadow of OPEC, an international cartel of oil-producing nations that attempts to set the price via output quotas. New signs of just how volatile the oil market can be might undercut some of the reasons for delaying a bitcoin ETF approval.
submitted by PresentType to inflationthebitcoinan [link] [comments]

Historic!

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

For Trading March 10th

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

For Trading March 10th

For Trading March 10th
HISTORIC ACTION
Is Cruising Over?
Entire Yield Curve Under 1%
Today’s market was down from overnight with the futures hitting “limit down” before 4:00AM. The DJIA opened at 9:30, like always, but was halted within 4 minutes after hitting the “circuit-breakers” at -7% and trading was stopped for 15-minutes after which we reopened and headed lower again, touching -1946, and by noon we had recovered to only -1183, but by 3:00 we had made a new low of 23,706 -2158 before a rally to -1650 before another sell-off to close DJIA – 2013.76 (7.79%), NASDAQ -624.94 (7.29%), S&P 500 -225.81 (7.60%), the Russell -135.79 (9.37%, and DJ Transports, the biggest loser -874.21 (9.76%). Market internals were just short of absurd with numbers that I had to go to several sources to make sure were correct. NYSE raw numbers were 70:2973 or 43:1 and NASDAQ was 169:3190 or 19:1. The DJIA was 30:0 after WMT, which held on all day fell into the red. The biggest losers were not double, but triple-digit movers with BA -237, AAPL -155, GS -136, HD -123, CAT -117, and JPM -100DPs. The only single digit losers were VZ and WMT. It was an interesting day, but not one I’d like to see too often. The market was influenced by not only COVID-19, but also the fact that OPEC couldn’t come up with an agreement to limit oil production. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia declared a price war with Russia, the main opponent to any agreement. Interest rates continued to fall, and that, along with the oil news sent the banking names down dramatically. I’ll list those below in their sector.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: It was a very tough day for everyone. While we did have a “Merger Monday” deal between AON and WLTW, neither of the participants made any headway. AON Plc, is buying Willis, Towers, Watson in the biggest insurance transaction ever and creating the world’s largest insurance broker, surpassing Marsh & McLennan (MMC) and worth about $80Billion.
There were a couple of names higher, just a few, and the main ones were in the auto parts segment with ORLY finishing $373.63 +5.55 (1.51%), AZO, $1113.69 +53.38 (5.03%) and AAP $130.36 +2.45 (1.92%). This group has been weak for the past 4-6 months. Also higher was discounter DLTR, $83.51 +3.27 (4.08%).
The Cruise lines continued to fall with all making new lows. RCL fell to $48.27 - 16.74 (25.75%) and down from $135 in January. CCL fell to $21.74 -5.41 (19.93%) and down from $52, while NCLH was $19.81 – 7.29 (26.9%) and down from $60. This is absolutely uninvestable. There will clearly be a point at which the shorts cover, but this group is dead money for a while.
In more COVID-19 news, Inovio (INO) which moved from $2.40 to $16.00 on the news that it would start human trials of its vaccine in April. This morning at $19.36 before collapsing all the way back to $8.53 before closing $9.83 -4.26 (30.23%).
But the HOMERUN OF THE DAY was another name I talked about in this space, AIM Immuno-Tech, Inc (AIM). The company said that its drug, Ampligen will begin testing at National Inst. Of Infectious Diseases in Japan that could play an important role in developing a protective early-onset therapy for COVID-19. The stock has been reverse split both 1:12 in 2016 and more recently 1:44 last June and traded under $ .40 had moved up to $3.50 this month and traded up on the news finishing $6.10 +4.00 (190%) and is continuing in extended hours to $8.75 and is currently $7.69 up an additional $1.59 for a total gain of $5.59 (266%). Quite a highlight on a dismal day.
BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with all names falling hard with BIIB -20.76, ABBV -3.55, REGN -20.58, ISRG -44.48, MYL -1.19, TEVA -1.42, VRTX -13.85, BHC -2.69, INCY -4.42, ICPT -6.88, LABU -11.47 (24.95%), and IBB $109.80 -8.23 (6.97%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER with TLRY -2.47 (24.65%) and KERN -2.58 (37.34%) and none down less than 7.48%. The ETF, MJ $11.74 -1.36 (10.38%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with some major loses by LMT -31.47, RTN -14.83, GD -13.01, TXT -5.48 (15.26%), UTX -12.48, NOC -15.58, BWXT -5.14, TDY -33.73, and ITA was $174.00 -21.04 (10.79%).
RETAIL was LOWER with major losses. The brands were the biggest losers on the day. M-1.12, JWN -1.88, KSS -2.84, DDS -2.37, JCP - .015, WMT -1.17, TGT -1.92, TJX -1.35, RL -10.78 (10.19%), UAA -1.46 (11.56%), LULU -22.44 (10.27%), TPR -3.35 (15.44%), CPRI -3.13 (13.65%) and XRT $37.01 -2.12 (5.42%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -80.14, AMZN -96.19, AAPL -21.42, FB -11.40, NFLX -22.48, NVDA -21.04, IBM -10.38, TSLA -92.48 (13.01%), BABA -7.24, BIDU -8.52, BA -36.22 (13.81%) on continuing problems with the 737MAX and the general market, CAT -16.42 (13.52%), DIS -10.55, and XLK $82.84 -6.07 (6.83%).
FINANCIALS were LOWER with most down over 10% with the market and softness in rates with GS -19.14, JPM -13.53, BAC -3.59, MS -4.35, C -9.34, PNC -15.48, AIG -5.13, TRV -8.54, AXP -9.94, and XLF $22.80 -2.75 (10.76%).
OIL, $31.13 -10.15 (24.58%) The stocks were LOWER with the dramatic fall on the “price war” between the Saudi’s and Putin. It’s difficult to even relate to the prices I’m seeing. In August when OXY bought APC for $57billion OXY was just over $50. Tonight it closed $12.51 –14.35 (53.43%) and the COMBINED market-cap is only $11.4Billion. The rest of the list was equally bad with CVX -13.42, XOM -4.94, MRO 4.06 -2.77 (40.56%), MPC -5.43, APA 10.22 -10.48 (50.6%), BP -5.66 and XLE $34.98 -7.52 (17.69%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,675.70 +3.30. After the rebound, and the overnight move to $1,704.30 we sold off as liquidation hit even the yellow metal. We managed to close up on the day, but it was a disappointment just the same. Our $1.40 position in the GLD calls finished $1.65 +.11.
BITCOIN: closed $7,850 -1,315. We broke to the downside overnight and fell to a low of $7,640, which closed a gap left on the breakout back in January. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We did have 2 subscribers add to new positions under the close today. But we still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $8.86 – 1.72 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to optionstrading [link] [comments]

Why the risk of mining centralization does not exist

In the free market, a cartel's attempt to increase profit by reducing output is doomed to fail; it improves profit for those outside the cartel and those inside the cartel who want to cheat.
A cartel can work -- but only if it is supported by regulation (often instigated by large actors themselves in a struggling submarket) and the coercive power of the state.
In bitcoin we have none of that, and can not have due to the mechanics of proof of work. It means anyone can mine, anywhere, in any jurisdiction.
It means if the mining industry is attacked in one nation state, or an attempt to organize a cartel in that nation state, it will immediately be outcompeted by miners some other place. If it is shut down in one country, it will be replaced somewhere else, and if that can not physically be accomplished immediately, the price per hash will increase, reducing the rate of hashing to equilibrium with the coin price. And bitcoin will continue as if nothing had happened.
In fact, any intervention into mining can only decrease the profitability of the mining outfits attacked, or taken over. Any purpose other than striving for the best mining economy, will leave that miner in the cold.
The key is the global aspect of the system, and the low barrier to entry, mining does not have to be spread evenly, and need not be located where the users are. We can absolutely have mining in china, no users, no mining in europe, but all the users.
My evaluation of the opec oil producers cartel -- since oil production is international, there is no jurisdiction that can support the cartel with coercion. Crazy evil action from enemy states can distort production some place, if so it will pop up another place, and the production quota is obviously never heeded by anyone. Here, as in all cartels, for any actor it is profitable that the other actors reduce production to raise the price, then to increase production for himself under the higher prices. Opec is just a club of big talkers.
In another submarket, downstream oil: From a story about Standard Oil, https://ari.aynrand.org/issues/government-and-business/capitalism/Vindicating-Capitalism-The-Real-History-of-the-Standard-Oil-Company/
"The failing refiners were neither the first nor the last businesses to be in such a situation. And, like many before and after them, they tried to solve their problems via cartels: agreements among producers to artificially reduce their production in order to artificially raise their prices. Rockefeller, hoping for stability in prices and an end to the irrationality of others refining beyond their means, joined and supported two cartels. This move was disastrous — the worst of Rockefeller’s career."
"Cartels are generally viewed as evil, destructive schemes because they are overt attempts by a group of businesses to increase revenues by raising consumers’ prices across an industry. In and of itself, however, seeking higher prices for one’s products is not evil; it is good. The problem with cartels is not that they seek higher profits, but that they shortsightedly attempt to generate them by non-productive means. So long as the economic freedom to offer competing or substitute products exists — as should be the case — such a scheme is bound to fail."
Another read covering the same: https://mises.org/library/antitrust-policy-both-harmful-and-useless
So, no centralization risk
submitted by ErdoganTalk to btc [link] [comments]

Why Stellar is the best crypto to buy and hold right now

Why Stellar is the best crypto to buy and hold right now
Crypto prices have gone down in the past few days due to the coronavirus epidemic and other factors. It's a good moment to buy – and Stellar is among the best coins to buy. Read on for an analysis from the XLMwallet team!
When the coronavirus outbreak just started, the price of Bitcoin and other crypto went up sharply. Many said that the virus would be good for Bitcoin. Why? Because BTC is a safe haven asset, like gold. People invest in it when there's a lot of market uncertainty. The rise of BTC in February led to a general increase in crypto prices. Here's a chart for Stellar – you can see an increase around February 15, when the price rose to $0.086:
https://xlmwallet.co/
But this was when the outbreak was confined to China. Now, the center of the virus crisis is in Europe, and the markets are panicking again.
Another piece of news that rattled the crypto market and the price of Stellar is the fall in oil prices. OPEC and Russia didn't manage to make a deal, and this can cause a price war. On March 9, the price of oil fell by over 20%. Because of this, all kinds of assets started to fall, including crypto.
People are now selling off high-risk assets, such as stocks, options and crypto. Bitcoin may be a safe haven asset in a way, but it's still very volatile, so nobody sees it as an equivalent to gold.
Right now the price of XLM is just $0.05. Stellar lost 37.5% of the value in a little more than 3 weeks. What should you do?
Now is a good moment to buy
If you already hold XLM, you should definitely hold on to them. And here at XLMwallet we believe that you should buy more.
We all know that in crypto you should buy on a dip. Right now there's a huge dip for all top-20 coins. Bitcoin has lost about 22% of its price since mid-February, from $10400 to $8100. So it's also a good buy, of course. But Stellar, having dipped almost 38%, is even better. XLM is now cheap not only relative to USD but also relative to BTC.
So why will Stellar grow? Because crypto prices don't depend much on geopolitical factors in the long term. They can react for a short time when there's a general crisis in the stock market, oil etc. But then the prices go back to being determined by the internal workings of the crypto market. So any price volatility that is caused by outside factors is likely to be temporary.
Why Stellar will grow
Stellar's fundamentals remain very strong. For example, XLM is now supported by the 450 crypto ATMs belonging to the startup CoinFlip. Also in the news, Bank von der Heydt – one of the oldest banks in Germany – will now offer tokenized securities based on Stellar. This kind of developments are actually more important for the XLM price in the long term than a dip in the oil market or the coronavirus.
So, right now Stellar is a great buying opportunity. In a few months, the coronavirus crisis will probably boil over, and there will be some new agreement in the oil market. Plus, the Bitcoin halving is coming in May. This will push crypto prices back up, and we expect Stellar to grow at least 50%.
Store XLM in the best wallet
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submitted by Stellar__wallet to u/Stellar__wallet [link] [comments]

Bitcoin price drops to $7,700 along with the stock market

Oil price crashed a record 35% in three days, followed by the S&P 500 drop of 12% and other world indexes. Amid this turmoil, Bitcoin lost 16% of its price, having fallen down to $7,700 on Sunday, March 9.
The first reason: the coronavirus epidemic, which has already negatively affected the global economy and has begun to spread around the world. The second one: a disagreement between OPEC countries on cuts in oil supplies.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 06/03

The Dow rose 4.74, or 0.02%, to 24,819.78, the Nasdaq lost 120.13, or 1.61%, to 7,333.02, and the S&P 500 declined 7.61, or 0.28%, to 2,744.45.
The S&P 500 lost 0.3% on Monday, as shares of big tech companies fell on various reports that heightened antitrust concerns. Lingering trade and growth concerns also helped curb risk sentiment and underpin the strength in U.S. Treasuries. A swarm of buyers in the last 30 minutes of action, however, helped the broader market close off its session lows.
Reports of potential antitrust investigations into the biggest names in technology sunk stocks from the outset and weighed most heavily on the Nasdaq. Those worries, at least for a day, supplanted ongoing concerns about the trade fights that the U.S. is waging with both China and Mexico, though a number of lackluster PMI readings were a reminder that global growth worries have not gone away even if they were not front and center in today's trading.
The tech-sensitive Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6%. FB, GOOGL, AMZN were all singled out in various reports indicating that the companies could face antitrust scrutiny by the Department of Justice and/or Federal Trade Commission.
These companies represent some of the most widely-held stocks in the U.S., and their out-sized losses weighed heavily on the Nasdaq and on the S&P 500 communication services (-2.8%), information technology (-1.8%), and consumer discretionary (-1.2%) sectors. The other eight S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by materials (+3.4%), to provide offsetting support.
In other Apple news, the iPhone maker kicked off its Annual Worldwide Developers Conference, during which the company unveiled a new Apple Mac Pro and Pro Display XDR, the watchOS 6 operating system for Apple Watch devices, iPadOS with a new home screen and split view, the new tvOS 13 system for Apple TV, iOS 13 with Dark Mode, and a new App Store for the Apple Watch.
BA shares slipped fractionally after the Federal Aviation Administration announced yesterday in a statement that the planemaker informed the agency that certain 737 NG and 737 MAX leading edge slat tracks may have been improperly manufactured and may not meet all applicable regulatory requirements for strength and durability.
Persisting concerns about trade and growth helped restrain buying conviction throughout the day. China blamed the U.S. for the setback in trade talks, which reinforced fears that a protracted trade war will squeeze global growth, and earnings, prospects. Global manufacturing PMI data, including in the U.S., revealed slower or flat growth in May.
On a related note, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (FOMC Voter) said that slower economic growth could be sharper-than-expected due to the trade uncertainty. Mr. Bullard added that a rate cut may soon be warranted to boost inflation.
Growing expectations for a rate cut, and general growth concerns, helped send the 2-yr yield down 12 basis points to 1.83%. The 10-yr yield declined six basis points to 2.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.5% to 97.22. WTI crude decreased 0.5% to $53.25/bbl, giving up an intraday rebound effort.
Among the noteworthy gainers was SMTA, which rose 19.8% after it agreed to be acquired by HPT for $2.4B. Hospitality Properties shares were 2.4% lower after the news. Also higher was EE, which gained 13.7% after it agreed to be acquired by the Infrastructure Investments Fund for $68.25 per share. Among the notable losers was TRUE, which fell 18.7% after announcing the retirement of president and CEO Chip Perry. Also lower was CNC, which declined 10.3% after Humana (HUM) confirmed that it will not propose a merger with Centene. Humana shares were 2.2% higher after the news.
Stocks in Asia were mixed on Monday amid increasing concerns over the state of global trade. European stocks see-sawed Monday, as fears over the current state of global trade remained in place. Sharp early losses were erased during the afternoon session.

Currency

The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut “may be warranted soon”.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries rallied sharply overnight, bolstered by some disappointing manufacturing PMI readings out of the eurozone and the release of a White Paper from China's government that placed the blame on the U.S. for the breakdown in trade negotiations.
The Treasury market has already been pricing in the prospect of a rate cut (or two) before the end of the year, as growth concerns have picked up noticeably amid the trade standoff between the U.S and China, as well as President Trump's announcement last week that a 5% tariff will be applied on all imports of goods from Mexico, effective June 10, if the Trump Administration does not feel Mexico is doing enough to curb the flow of illegal immigrants into the U.S.

Commodity

Oil futures ended the session lower after back-and-forth trading on Monday, as Saudi comments indicating OPEC would extend supply cuts supported prices. Gold climbed more than 1.5% on Monday to its highest level in more than three months on concerns that U.S.-Chinese trade tensions and Washington’s threat of tariffs on Mexico would hurt the global economy.
July Natural Gas settled $0.05 lower (-2.3%) at $2.403/MMBtu.
Precious metals rose as they tend to do in a flight to safety. June gold futures broke out to a four-month high, settling the session $16.90 higher (+1.3%) at $1322.70/oz. July silver settled $0.173 higher (+1.2%) at $14.74/oz.

Crypto

After seeing a short recovery attempt yesterday, crypto markets have seen another negative correction, with most of the 20 major coins in the red.

YTD

  • Dirty W +10.5%
  • Spoos +9.5%
  • Karen +8.9%
  • Old Man +6.4%

AH news

  • NFLX upgraded at Loop Capital
  • Box falls 11% after disappointing guidance.
  • House to pass $19 billion disaster aid bill and send it to Trump
  • COUP up 5% after beating estimates. 81.3M VS. $56.4M

What's tomorrow?

  • Looking ahead, investors will receive the Factory Orders report for April on Tuesday.
  • Also at 09:45 ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.47 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

For Trading Dec 5

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading December 5th
Trump Backtracks = Market Higher ISLAND REVERSAL?
OPEC Meeting Overnight Saudi-ARAMCO to Price
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market opened with a gap up reflecting the overnight walk-back of the Tweeter-in-Chief’s comments about EU and China trade. Personally, I don’t believe a word he says, and as I’ve said more than several dozen times, THERE IS NO DEAL UNTIL IT IS ADVANTAGEOUS FOR REELECTION. From that point of view, late spring would be the earliest. Tomorrow is day 54 since the Phase 1 signing was imminent. So, we gapped up and left what might turn out to be an “Island reversal,” but I doubt it. So we made the high +234 by noon and fell back by the close to +146.97 (.53%), NASDAQ +46.03 (.54%), S&P 500 +19.56 (.63%), the Russell +11.27 (.70%), and the DJ Transports +75.29 (.72%). None of these moves come close to making up yesterday’s loss, let alone the 2-day decline that started the week. I would absolutely sell a rally back up to 27,750 in the Dow or vs. SPY $313.50. A/D was 2:1 on the NYSE and 1.6:1 on NAZ. The DJIA was split 23:7 UP and the biggest gainer was the biggest loser from Monday and Tuesday, GS +26 DPs and the loser was BA -22 on the loss of an order for 50 planes to AirBus.
ISM non-manufacturing fell again, casting more doubt of economic expansion and ADP employment numbers of 67,000 jobs added was well below the 175,000 expected. MBA mortgage applications were -9.2%.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: We started with the news from EXPE held a Board meeting that ended in the firing of both the CEO and CFO both resigned at that BOD’s request. Barry Diller will take the CEO position until they can find replacements. The stock started lower and then turned back to the upside and after trading as high as $109.32 finished the day mid-range @ $105.56 +6.17 (6.21%). Resignations made by both Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the CEO and President of Alphabet (GOOGL) was also met with resounding approval, sending the stock +25.26 (2%).
Earnings beats by both WDAY and CRM wasn’t enough to keep those higher and WDAY finished $165.39 -8.11 (4.7%) and CRM $156.43 -5.14 (3.2%).
After the close today Slack (WORK) beat on revenues and its loss of $ .02, an improvement from - $ .08 initially sent that one lower to $20 -1.66 before its conference call and the stock recovered to $22.55 and is currently $21.88 +.22 from the close.
The HOMERUN OF THE DAY was Aurinia Pharma (AUPH) who reported Phase 3 trial results on a drug for LUPUS. The stock, public since late 2014 has traded between $1.41 and $10.54 had moved from $3.92 in mid-October to close today $8.39 + .41 (5.14%) but flew up to a high of $25.00 before settling back to $18.36 + 9.97 or 119%.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER across the board with BIIB the only loser -.20, ABBV +1.25, REGN +1.16, ISRG +3.10, MYL +.05, TEVA +.08, VRTX +1.63, BHC +.48, INCY +.90, ICPT +3.60 (3.19%), LABU +2.07 (3.74%) and IBB $120.86 +1.71 (1.44%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again with TLRY -.71, CGC -.61, CRON -.22, GWPH +4.61 (4.55%), ACB -.01, PYX -.22, APHA +.01, NBEV -.07, ACRGF -.05, CURLF +.04, KERN -.95 (7.6%) and MJ $16.86 -.19 (1.11%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with only 1 move of over 1%, BWXT +.81 (1.38%) and ITA $226.08 +.36 (.19%), and ITA $225.72 -.33 (.33%).
RETAIL was MIXED with the brands doing much better. M - .02, JWN +1.08, KSS +.51, DDS -2.14 (3.01%), JCP +.03, WMT +.02, TGT +.48, TJX +.48, KR +.30, RL +3.14, UAA +.03, LULU +1.82, CPRI +2.31 (6.63%) and XRT $43.91 +.31 (.71%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL the big winner (SEE ABOVE) +21.18, AMZN -11.96, AAPL +2.05, FB -.37, NFLX -2.67, NVDA +1.40, TSLA -2.92, BABA -.53, BIDU -.59, BOX -.51, IBM -.22, BA -3.08, CAT +.06 and XLK $86.48 +.36 (.41%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with rates. GS +3.70, JPM +2.66, BAC +.29, MS +.64, C +.90, PNC +1.61, AIG -.06, TRV +.55, AXP +1.37 and XLF $29.82 +.28 (.95%).
OIL, $58.43 +2.33. Today’s action was a run back up to a high of $58.66, just under the highs seen just before the last selloff. Tonight we have the OPEC meeting and we should have some news before the open. Also, the pricing for Saudi ARAMCO should happen overnight. This will value the company as the most valuable in the world at approximately $1.7 TRILLION. The stocks were higher with the crude and XLE $58.88 +.87 (1.5%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,480.20 -4.20. We were stopped out of our long position last week and we have fallen right back down to the most recent, and most important area of support around $1,450. I think we can see another test of $1,490 -$1,500 again. Current range is between 1470 -1490.
BITCOIN: closed $7,220 - 120. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I will add another 400 either higher or lower. GBTC closed $8.73 - .25 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to swingtrading [link] [comments]

For Dec 5 Update ....

Market Strategies Newsletter - Special Daily Edition
For Trading December 5th
Trump Backtracks = Market Higher ISLAND REVERSAL?
OPEC Meeting Overnight Saudi-ARAMCO to Price
Join Us Every Day, Link Below
Today’s market opened with a gap up reflecting the overnight walk-back of the Tweeter-in-Chief’s comments about EU and China trade. Personally, I don’t believe a word he says, and as I’ve said more than several dozen times, THERE IS NO DEAL UNTIL IT IS ADVANTAGEOUS FOR REELECTION. From that point of view, late spring would be the earliest. Tomorrow is day 54 since the Phase 1 signing was imminent. So, we gapped up and left what might turn out to be an “Island reversal,” but I doubt it. So we made the high +234 by noon and fell back by the close to +146.97 (.53%), NASDAQ +46.03 (.54%), S&P 500 +19.56 (.63%), the Russell +11.27 (.70%), and the DJ Transports +75.29 (.72%). None of these moves come close to making up yesterday’s loss, let alone the 2-day decline that started the week. I would absolutely sell a rally back up to 27,750 in the Dow or vs. SPY $313.50. A/D was 2:1 on the NYSE and 1.6:1 on NAZ. The DJIA was split 23:7 UP and the biggest gainer was the biggest loser from Monday and Tuesday, GS +26 DPs and the loser was BA -22 on the loss of an order for 50 planes to AirBus.
ISM non-manufacturing fell again, casting more doubt of economic expansion and ADP employment numbers of 67,000 jobs added was well below the 175,000 expected. MBA mortgage applications were -9.2%.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights.
SECTORS: Other names in the news: We started with the news from EXPE held a Board meeting that ended in the firing of both the CEO and CFO both resigned at that BOD’s request. Barry Diller will take the CEO position until they can find replacements. The stock started lower and then turned back to the upside and after trading as high as $109.32 finished the day mid-range @ $105.56 +6.17 (6.21%). Resignations made by both Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the CEO and President of Alphabet (GOOGL) was also met with resounding approval, sending the stock +25.26 (2%).
Earnings beats by both WDAY and CRM wasn’t enough to keep those higher and WDAY finished $165.39 -8.11 (4.7%) and CRM $156.43 -5.14 (3.2%).
After the close today Slack (WORK) beat on revenues and its loss of $ .02, an improvement from - $ .08 initially sent that one lower to $20 -1.66 before its conference call and the stock recovered to $22.55 and is currently $21.88 +.22 from the close.
The HOMERUN OF THE DAY was Aurinia Pharma (AUPH) who reported Phase 3 trial results on a drug for LUPUS. The stock, public since late 2014 has traded between $1.41 and $10.54 had moved from $3.92 in mid-October to close today $8.39 + .41 (5.14%) but flew up to a high of $25.00 before settling back to $18.36 + 9.97 or 119%.
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER across the board with BIIB the only loser -.20, ABBV +1.25, REGN +1.16, ISRG +3.10, MYL +.05, TEVA +.08, VRTX +1.63, BHC +.48, INCY +.90, ICPT +3.60 (3.19%), LABU +2.07 (3.74%) and IBB $120.86 +1.71 (1.44%).
CANNABIS: stocks were LOWER again with TLRY -.71, CGC -.61, CRON -.22, GWPH +4.61 (4.55%), ACB -.01, PYX -.22, APHA +.01, NBEV -.07, ACRGF -.05, CURLF +.04, KERN -.95 (7.6%) and MJ $16.86 -.19 (1.11%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with only 1 move of over 1%, BWXT +.81 (1.38%) and ITA $226.08 +.36 (.19%), and ITA $225.72 -.33 (.33%).
RETAIL was MIXED with the brands doing much better. M - .02, JWN +1.08, KSS +.51, DDS -2.14 (3.01%), JCP +.03, WMT +.02, TGT +.48, TJX +.48, KR +.30, RL +3.14, UAA +.03, LULU +1.82, CPRI +2.31 (6.63%) and XRT $43.91 +.31 (.71%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL the big winner (SEE ABOVE) +21.18, AMZN -11.96, AAPL +2.05, FB -.37, NFLX -2.67, NVDA +1.40, TSLA -2.92, BABA -.53, BIDU -.59, BOX -.51, IBM -.22, BA -3.08, CAT +.06 and XLK $86.48 +.36 (.41%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with rates. GS +3.70, JPM +2.66, BAC +.29, MS +.64, C +.90, PNC +1.61, AIG -.06, TRV +.55, AXP +1.37 and XLF $29.82 +.28 (.95%).
OIL, $58.43 +2.33. Today’s action was a run back up to a high of $58.66, just under the highs seen just before the last selloff. Tonight we have the OPEC meeting and we should have some news before the open. Also, the pricing for Saudi ARAMCO should happen overnight. This will value the company as the most valuable in the world at approximately $1.7 TRILLION. The stocks were higher with the crude and XLE $58.88 +.87 (1.5%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,480.20 -4.20. We were stopped out of our long position last week and we have fallen right back down to the most recent, and most important area of support around $1,450. I think we can see another test of $1,490 -$1,500 again. Current range is between 1470 -1490.
BITCOIN: closed $7,220 - 120. We broke to the upside but ran into a brick wall just under $8,000. After having a GTC order @ $9.85 since we sold on 11/5, we finally got filled on the first 350 shares. I will add another 400 either higher or lower. GBTC closed $8.73 - .25 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to Optionstradingreality [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 03/07

The Dow fell 200.23, or 0.78%, to 25,473.23 , the Nasdaq lost 84.46, or 1.13%, to 7,421.46 , and the S&P 500 declined 22.52, or 0.81%, to 2,748.93.
The S&P 500 lost 0.8% on Thursday, as a negative economic outlook from the European Central Bank (ECB) helped fuel growth concerns and profit-taking interest. Thursday's risk-off mindset was made apparent by the underperformance of cyclical sectors and the flight-to-safety trade in the U.S. Treasury market where the 10-yr yield dropped six basis points to 2.64%.
There was little in the way of a catalyst, so stocks continued to endure their worst weekly performance of the year. The Dow and S&P finished lower for the seventh time in the past eight days. Investors may have been looking forward to tomorrow’s monthly jobs data, but they are also growing weary waiting for news on the trade talks with China despite the next scheduled meeting not occurring until the end of the month. A technical violation of the S&P 500's and Nasdaq Composite's 200-day moving averages also contributed to some selling interest; both closed below that key technical level.
10 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower with consumer discretionary (-1.4%), financials (-1.1%), and information technology (-0.9%) leading the retreat. Conversely, the utilities sector (+0.3%) was the lone group to finish higher.
In the U.S., initial jobless claims fell 3,000 to 223,000 in the week ended March 2. Q4 productivity grew at a 1.9% pace, which was a little firmer than expected.
In Trump news, CNBC reported that Michael Cohen, former lawyer and fixer for U.S. President Donald Trump, has filed a lawsuit against the Trump Organization, alleging his former company has filed to pay "fees and costs" owed to him.
TSLA was in focus following two separate reports, including one from CNBC saying that securities lawyers are claiming that CEO Elon Musk could face large fines and potential suspension as CEO for recent activity on Twitter that federal authorities said violated his September 29 agreement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon is reviewing Musk's federal security clearance after he smoked marijuana on Joe Rogan's podcast in September. TSLA shares gained AH after a new filing showed a loan worth around $500M for use in China.
AGN said a new experimental treatment for major depression failed in three late-stage studies, and the drugmaker added that it was "deeply disappointed" in the results. David Tepper's Appaloosa hedge fund, which has been pressuring the board of Allergan for changes, said "this latest fiasco" should "make apparent to all that the company's 'Open Science' business model is broken." Shares of Allergan closed 4% higher.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the SEC is investigating whether the multi-tiered pricing system used by stock exchanges, including Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Nasdaq (NDAQ), favors big brokers at the expense of smaller ones.
In Europe, the ECB held its key interest rates unchanged and said it now expects the key rates to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, which is later than its prior guidance for no change until at least this summer. The ECB also said a new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or "TLTRO-III," will be launched, starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, that "will help to preserve favorable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy." The timing served as a reinforcement of the concern that the global economy is weakening and that the U.S. market has gotten ahead of itself pricing in a more upbeat growth outlook that isn't being corroborated with falling earnings estimates.
Among the noteworthy gainers was YEXT, which rose 10% after it reported quarterly results and said it plans to hire over 200 employees in Germany over the next five years. Also higher after reporting quarterly results was GWRE, which gained 4%.
Among the notable losers was WBA which fell 2.1% on concerns over potential increased regulatory pressures after the Food and Drug Administration called the company the top violator among pharmacies illegally selling tobacco products to minors. Among the notable losers after reporting quarterly results were TWI and BURL, which fell 22% and 12%, respectively. Also lower was KR, which fell 10% after the grocery store operator reported worse than expected sales and profits for the fourth quarter and gave lower than expected fiscal year guidance.
Shares in Asia were mixed on Thursday following a third consecutive day of losses on Wall Street as investors sought developments on the state of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, U.S. tensions with China reached new heights as Chinese tech giant Huawei filed a lawsuit against the U.S. on Thursday. European stocks retreated, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.4%.

Currency

The euro fell sharply against the dollar Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled a series of market-friendly policies amid a slew of rising risks.

Treasury

U.S. Treasuries saw a continuation of their recent strength on Thursday, registering solid gains across the curve. Treasuries started the cash session on a modestly higher note and accelerated their advance after the European Central Bank released a dovish statement, which served as an acknowledgement of slowing growth in the eurozone. It was not a surprise that the ECB made no changes to its interest rate corridor, but the central bank also said that it intends to keep rates at their current levels throughout 2019, which is about three months longer than what was stated in its previous guidance.

Commodity

Oil prices rose in choppy trade on Thursday, as the market continues to draw support from ongoing OPEC-led supply cuts and U.S. sanctions against exporters Venezuela and Iran.

Crypto

Cryptocurrency markets have recorded moderate gains and losses on the day, with Binance Coin (BNB) being the major gainer on the day. The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) started the day around $3,901, subsequently reaching its intraday high of $3,938.

YTD

  • Russell +13.0% YTD
  • Nasdaq +11.9% YTD
  • Spoos +9.7% YTD
  • Dow +9.2% YTD

AH news

  • COST Q2 Rev $35.40Bln Est 35.68Bln, Q2 EPS $2.01 vs $1.69 exp. Up 4%
  • EB Q4 EPS $(0.17) Misses $(0.13) Estimate. Down 20%

What's tomorrow?

investors will receive the Employment Situation Report for February and the Housing Starts and Building Permits Report for January on Friday.
Summary scraped from the interweb. Took 0.18 seconds.
submitted by hibernating_brain to thewallstreet [link] [comments]

End of day summary - 12/06

The Dow fell 79.40, or 0.32%, to 24,947.67, the Nasdaq gained 29.83, or 0.42%, to 7,188.26 , and the S&P 500 declined 4.11, or 0.15%, to 2,695.95.
The S&P 500 lost 0.2%, but was able to fight back after being down as much as 2.9% earlier in the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% after being down as many as 785 points or 3.1%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%, yet it had been down as many as 174 points or 2.4%.
The major indices suffered steep losses in the early going after news of the arrest of Huawei Technologies' CFO fueled concerns about U.S.-China trade negotiations. News surfaced Wednesday that Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada Dec. 1 amid allegations the company violated U.S. trade sanctions on Iran. Ms. Meng is expected to be extradited to the U.S. to face the charges. Her arrest invited worries about potential retaliation against U.S. companies doing business in/with China. In a broader context, the sense that there might not be a trade deal fueled global growth concerns. The arrest opened a new front in the U.S.-China trade war, which had seemed to turn a positive corner following the G20 meeting. The markets continued to lose ground during the morning session, but the averages pared a good portion of their losses prior to the close. The recovery may have been aided by a Wall Street Journal recap of recent interviews and public statements from Federal Reserve officials that stated that the central bank members are considering whether to signal a "new wait-and-see" approach after a likely rate hike in December.
In other developments, JPM CEO Jamie Dimon shared some typically practical viewpoints in a CNBC interview that helped provide a measure of support for an oversold stock market. Mr. Dimon said he realizes the China trade issue is the main source of market volatility right now, but believes there could be enough progress in trade talks in the next 90 days to create, or push out, another deadline. He did acknowledge, though, that the trade uncertainty is not a good thing.
Regarding interest rates, Mr. Dimon believes the world is better off with the U.S. growing and rates going up because of that growth than it is with the U.S. being in a recession and rates going down because of it. He thinks if there is a bubble anywhere it is in U.S. government bonds.
Within the S&P 500, the energy (-1.8%), financials (-1.5%), materials (-1.4%), and industrial (-0.6%) sectors underperformed the broader market.
The oil-sensitive energy group fell in tandem with oil prices. WTI crude fell 3.0% to $51.56/bbl amid reports that Saudi Arabia is floating an idea for OPEC to cut production less than the market expected.
Conversely, the real estate (+2.7%), communication services (+1.0%), consumer discretionary (+0.6%), and information technology (+0.2%) sectors all finished in the green on Thursday.
Strong finishes from many of the FAANG stocks helped lift the broader market, which rallied sharply into the close on broad-based buying interest. FB, NFLX, GOOGL, and AMZN all rose between 1.2% and 2.7%, Meanwhile, AAPL traded lower with a loss of 1.1%, but was able to close near its session high.
Among the noteworthy gainers was DFRG, which rose 16% after shareholder Engaged Capital urged the board to explore strategic alternatives. Also higher was TST, which gained 35% after announcing that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its institutional business units, The Deal and BoardEx, for $87.3M to Euromoney Institutional Investor.
Among the notable losers was NPTN, which fell 16% after B. Riley FBR analyst Dave Kang downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy on Huawei uncertainty. Also lower was SIG, which slid 18% after reporting quarterly results.
European stocks cratered on Thursday, amid fears of slowing growth, falling oil prices and a fresh flare-up in tensions between the world's two largest economies. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell more than 3.3 percent with all and major bourses sectors in negative territory. The index clsoed at 342 points, marking a two year low. It was the worst daily percentage drop for the STOXX 600 since Brexit.

Currency

The dollar weakened against major peers on Thursday as U.S. The dollar has been under pressure this week as an inversion in part of the U.S. yield curve raised a red flag for a potential recession.

Treasury

The sharp selling in the stock market off the open, fueled a flight-to-safety in the Treasury market that pushed yields noticeably lower across the curve. The 2-yr yield dropped three basis points to 2.77% after hitting 2.68% intraday. The 10-yr yield dropped five basis points to 2.87% after hitting 2.82% intraday. The backtracking in the Treasury market also coincided with the close of European markets and the rebound effort in the stock market.

Commodity

Oil prices tumbled about 3 percent on Thursday as OPEC reportedly agreed to cut production, but ended its closely-watched meeting without a decision on how much crude the cartel will take off the market.

Crypto

Bitcoin has today sunk to its lowest level since the beginning of the year as a cryptocurrency-wide market rout continues to cause pain for holders of bitcoin, ethereum, Ripple's XRP and other major digital tokens.

YTD

  • Nasdaq +4.1% YTD
  • Dow +0.9% YTD
  • S&P 500 +0.8% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -3.9% YTD

Numbers

  • Most active options; AAPL (calls), F (puts), BAC (calls), C (calls)

AH news

  • LULU reports Q3 adjusted EPS 75c, consensus 70c
  • AVGO beats Q4 EPS by 27c
  • TSLA said to plan paying March note holders mix of stock and cash

What's tomorrow?

08:30 ET: Employment Situation Report for November
  • Nonfarm payrolls (consensus 189,000)
  • Nonfarm private payrolls (consensus 185,000)
  • Avg. hourly earnings (consensus +0.3%)
  • Unemployment rate (consensus 3.7%)
  • Avg. workweek (consensus 34.5)
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J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Thurs 9.14.17 - **PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT**

J.P. Morgan Early Look at the Market – Thurs 9.14.17 Trading Desk Commentary; For Institutional Investors Only
*PLEASE DO NOT FORWARD THIS DOCUMENT*

Morning Levels

Trading Update

Top Headlines for Thursday

Calendar of events to watch for the week of Mon Sept 18

Catalysts – big events to watch over the coming months