Settling for more Stock exchanges find - The Economist
Settling for more Stock exchanges find - The Economist
Economist: Bitcoin Remains a “Risk On” Asset After
Stocks could fall 40% in a collapse mimicking the Great
2020 Will See Bitcoin Become Competitor to World
Why Hasn’t Bitcoin Followed Stocks Rallying On Positive
Why Our Money Is Broken
I’m writing this because I wish to explain in layman terms why the global economy is broken. Most people intuitively feel that the economy is a mess and bad things are happening. Words like corruption, crony capitalism, money printing and bailouts are being tossed about as explanations why the economy is in trouble. While all these things are problems our economy is facing and deserve attention, they are all consequences of a fundamental problem that needs to be understood first and foremost. That is, money itself is broken. To understand how fiat money we use is broken, one should view money as a commodity just as you would any other good. Any economist would agree that setting a price for a good or service is a bad idea, but for whatever reason, mainstream economists (Keynesians) believe that money is exempt from the disastrous effects of price fixing. As a quick refresher why price fixing is never a desirable policy let’s take a look at the classic example of rent control. Let’s say the average cost of an apartment in your city/town is $1000. Your politicians say that this is outrageous and make a sweeping policy saying that no apartment can be priced above $100. Suddenly the supply for housing cannot come close to matching the demand at this price. Landlords no longer care about the upkeep of the apartment because even if the apartment turns into a shithole, someone will still take it for $100. People no longer have incentives to build new housing or renovate existing housing because they can no longer charge a market rate. The end result is a city in ruins. Try your logic at why price fixing doesn’t work with any good. The market is distorted. Supply and demand are unable to reach equilibrium and everybody loses. The price of money is the interest rate. When the Federal Reserve engages in interest rate targeting, this is price setting. The Fed will say that the cost of money is too high! We need to get more money into the hands of more people to stimulate the economy, so let’s set the price of money to zero. Take a minute to think about what this means. In a free market the interest rate is established by the supply of money (savings) and the demand for money (borrowing). The interest rate can never be zero. It can only approach zero if the supply (savings) is reaching infinity and/or the demand (borrowers) for money is reaching zero. When the Fed fixes the price of money, it is sending a false market signal across the whole economy about how much money is saved to properly be used for investment. This is where irrational economic behavior occurs on a macroeconomic scale. Strictly speaking, individuals are operating rationally. If the price of money is zero, it is only rational to borrow money and not save your money. The problem is not the individual but rather the Central Bank has distorted the reality of the most important commodity of them all, money itself. What are the consequences of setting the price of money so low? Think about how this affects borrowers. The economy is operating under the assumption that there are more savings available for investment then there actually are. This leads to malinvestments. Imagine your buddy says he has a million dollars saved and would be happy to lend you this money free of interest. Maybe you’d build a fancy new house or put down a lot of capital to start a business. Then halfway through building your house, your buddy says, sorry, I only had $100,000, not a million. You began building something you should never have started building had you previously known how much money was actually available. You have to scrap your project and you end up with a worthless half built project. How does this affect savers? Imagine if I had a million dollars in my savings account. With the interest rate so low, I’m being given very strong signals to not keep that money in the bank to be loaned out. If the price of money is zero, why in the world would I want to sell (loan) my money for no profit? You wouldn’t. Your money is losing value everyday it sits in the bank account because the Fed is pumping out more money and giving it to banks to keep the interest rate at zero. You need to buy something with that money. You end up buying a house, stocks or whatever commodity you think will increase in price because you don’t want to see the value of your cash inflated away. As investments are undertaken that should never have been started and commodities are purchased that should never have been purchased, asset prices rise and we see bubbles forming all over the economic landscape. By messing with price of money the whole economy has become infected. And unfortunately at this stage, there is no cure. We are in too deep. The financial system will implode and the dollar will collapse. Please protect yourself and buy bitcoin.
edit - I came up with a far better title: Why I YOLO on LLOY I have held my Vanguard for three years and since then had read a few books (albeit badly) that inspired me to take some risks: Armchair economist, Freakonomics, Thinking Fast Thinking Slow, 80/20 Principle, Algebra of Happiness, Smarter Investing, somewhat through Intelligent Investor but it's a slow read. I had never experienced picking individuals and foolishly it was something which I wanted badly enough to open with AJBell this FY. Tbh I regret it so if you're already happy with your Vanguard offerings then I can't say I'm happy to own individual picks now. Hopefully I'll get onto the psychology of why later. So why did I pick LLOY? I'm not going to say that I'm ecstatic about it. It was painful to push the button on it. I am extremely bearish (in life not just investing!), this comes from being a millennial, and I am certain that there is a government/company waiting just around the corner to overcharge me for goods and services. I did do some quick maths from the tiny fraction my pea brain gleamed from Intelligent Investor: Assets - 1065.871bn Liabilities - 1000.070bn Long Term Debt - 143.312bn 1065.871 - (1000.070 + 143.312) = 1065.871 - 1143.382 = -77.511 Lloyds really doesn’t appear to be a good buy. But I did so anyway… Somewhat probably from thing's I've not fully understood from Intelligent Investor! Banks are out of favour. They have been out of fashion as long as I can remember.
The financial crisis. The government bailout, which when you look at it now has Barclays comment of 'never took a Govt. bailout' isn't as good after learning that LLOY bought HBOS after being strong-armed by the Govt. for them to learn that there was some weird accounting going on.
PPI Scandal - no idea how this got so out of control. It was an amazingly American style campaign that went on as far as reclaiming it went. It very much reminded me of when I was a child and would forever see compo ads on the telly.
The FinTech new banks. I have nothing bad to say about this bunch I love them, they are doing the lords work. The industry definitely needs shaking up, I remember the days where my banking app mandated a different keyboard from my Android phone for security purposes, fantastic way to 1. freak people out and 2. ruin the usability of your application. The innovation of usability and access which these FinTech's bring is fantastic. But I'm not going to take a loan out with them, my parents aren't going to be able to take a mortgage out with them, and my parents definitely won't get an account over and above their brick banks. When switching becomes even more effortless nobody will probably be with the same bank for more than a year.
Go on why did you buy it despite all this then? Intelligent Investors advice when looking for value is to find companies which are out of fashion but still adequately ran (probably a better word there for adequately). This isn't the 2008 financial crisis - we aren't in this mess because the Banks released a deadly virus. But that doesn’t mean that LLOY wasn't heading for failure before this. The stock was performing badly before this storm. The profits we're lower than expected but they had the PPI bill to pay. The bank is led by António Horta-Osório - he has led the bank since 2011, nearly 10 years of service. He even took time off for his mental health before it was cool to do so! They're even reducing their emissions by 50% by 2020. Forget Elon, this guy is as fellow kids as they come. I'm not worried about the FinTech's yet. I have a few fintech accounts and they're great. I rolled out my joint account in a few clicks. I use it for all my spending. One thing which I think the FinTechs will do better with is getting extremely rich data on their customers spending habits and will therefore be able to sell this to aggregators for a higher price. LLOY have a £3bn digital transformation project which should be completing next year, we'll have to see what they have come up with. (you can tell I started to give up here) LLOY is the leader in the Mortgage market. They even have the Tesco portfolio! Should the country not be able to afford their mortgage bill, I just can't see the government letting it all go. They helped fund this BTL nation through their mortgage interest write offs at the time when rental yields were far higher and so were interest rates! There won't be anyone around to buy the repossessions, all the elderly are dead from Corona, and the youth don’t have any money to buy the houses. I don't think prices can go down to the point at which GenX/Mil can pay for them regardless. The next Govt. handout I can see is an enforced mortgage readjustment by the Govt. to the lenders for as long as borrowers need. There is probably far more which might back this up, but that doesn’t matter because the answer is that this was a risky buy, I have no doubt there is 10 fold more rationale behind not buying this. Just look at the guy the other day who was selling his WH, 200% what a lucky sole, their website was absolute garbage in a time when everyone is betting online! Anyway finally, the psychology behind why I should have stayed with VG. There are no purchase fees! When I buy through AJ and I see that there is a £10 dealing fee I feel a loss. This is mentioned heavily in investment books but I want to talk about the psychology behind it. In Thinking Fast Thinking Slow there is lots of talk about how we as humans react to loss, there are lots of studies mentioned in the book and it is fascinating. The essential take-home point here is that we as humans see loss completely different to gains. You can feel ecstatic finding £5 on the floor but feel a huge sense of dread when a scooter taxi rips you off by £5 in Vietnam and you think about it for the rest of your life! If you can gleam one thing from the Bitcoin culture its HODL!
Masked Hero’ Calling to ‘Buy Bitcoin’ Amidst the Peaceful Protests and Riots in the US
Bitcoin is taking an active part in the riots across America. People are protesting since last week over the death of George Floyd, a black man who died while pleading for air as a white Minneapolis officer jammed a knee into his neck. One protestor in the Los Angeles neighborhood talked about opting out of the current scenario by moving into bitcoin. He said, “WE LIVE IN A SYSTEM THAT WILL NOT ALLOW US TO THRIVE. […] MY MACRO SOLUTION FOR EVERYONE IS TO OPT OUT AND EXIT THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE AND THE WAY WE DO THAT IS BY BUYING BITCOIN.” “Who is this masked hero?” enquired Jesse Powell, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Kraken on Twitter. The protests erupted only recently but it needs to be pointed out that in the first five months of 2020, things weren’t going well either. People were under lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic that resulted in unemployment soaring to nearly 24% with jobless claims since mid-March at a staggering 40.8 million. While people are struggling to fed their family and pay their rent and mortgages, US Federal Reserve printed money and stocks are flying. THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE ECONOMY AND THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IS NOW THE GREATEST IT’S BEEN SINCE ANCIENT ROME. This wasn’t the first incident of bitcoin being highlighted during the protests either. Earlier this week, another protester in Dallas carried a sign saying “Bitcoin will save us,” much to the ire of the people both from inside and outside the crypto industry. Another one has been in Raleigh, North Carolina, where the poster of the protester read “Bitcoin & Black America” referring to the book authored by Isaiah Jackson.
BITCOIN IS THE PEACEFUL PROTEST.
Crypto industry has also been sharing its solidarity to the cause with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse supporting those “who are fighting to save Black lives,” although he “can’t ever fully understand the pain of our Black community that recent and past events have caused.” Bitcoin has been a part of protests in other parts of the world as well. Last year, the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong supported the adoption of the digital currency. Also, in countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Chile, and others, cryptocurrencies played a role. Markets Rising amidst the Chaos For the first time in about a month, this week the price of bitcoin also jumped above $10,000 amidst the raging protests, although we are back to $9,500. But bitcoin isn’t the only one, while many cities are on fire in the US, the S&P 500 enjoyed its greatest 50-day rally in history while struggling with the coronavirus pandemic. If history is any indication, these 37.7% returns would further expand in the days ahead. THE #GEORGEFLOYDPROTESTS HAVE HAD ZERO AFFECT ON THE STOCK MARKET. HERE’S A GRAPH OF THE DOW JONES INDEX SINCE #GEORGEFLYODMURDER. AS YOU CAN SEE, IT JUST KEEPS GOING UP. THE POOR ARE IN PAIN, THE COUNTRY IS ON FIRE, BUT THE RICH KEEP GETTING RICHER. PIC.TWITTER.COM/TYDIY09PAS — MATI GREENSPAN (TWEETS ARE NOT TRADING ADVICE) (@MATIGREENSPAN) JUNE 3, 2020 The reason behind this disconnection between the stock market and the economy is the trillions of dollars injected into the market by the Federal Reserve and government. Trader and economist Alex Kruger said, “EUROPE SHARPLY REDUCING POLITICAL TAIL RISK, JAPAN FISCAL PACKAGE 40% OF GDP, CHINA FEARS OVERDONE AS TRUMP STEPS BACK, ECONOMIES REOPENING, US RIOTS THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN. HENCE WHY SO MUCH GREEN.” But the widespread civil rest in the US could act as a headwind for stocks. Currently, bitcoin is trading at above $9,600 and is expected to hit $20,000 this year.
https://preview.redd.it/j0djo8qwty451.png?width=1343&format=png&auto=webp&s=f22a87463a1ba07c3c48fe40002e5cbd19745104 Hello everyone, thank you for your continued interest and support. In the past two weeks, various tasks of TokenClub have been progressing steadily. The product development and community operation progress this week are as follows: 1. TokenClub Events 1)TokenClub’s 2nd Token Circle Talent Show starts registration The second 2nd Token Circle Talent Show is coming, providing you with a big stage that you want to show yourself in the coin circle. 500,000 people will watch your performances here. This event takes part in the form of registration, and enters the selection competition after passing the preliminary screening of TokenClub. The trial will be promoted in the form of live PK. Winners will receive key support from TokenClub, self-media matrix, help create personal exclusive boutique columns, get the chance to talk with more heavyweight guests, and there will be TCT awards waiting for you! Friends, sign up now. https://preview.redd.it/f6s3axeyty451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=06513d733b2415c5550d6d34ca50b47dc3ae714e 2)June 1 activity ended successfully On the advent of “June 1”, the TokenClub team opened a new welfare activity for overseas communities. During the event, follow the team’s official Twitter and forward the event poster in real time, or participate in the topic interaction of the Telegram group to receive private red envelope rewards https://preview.redd.it/16ffpkqzty451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=dba7dc67a0864355bf4fd340f0ca4b0f77f16020 3)BTCGrandpa is invited to participate in the live broadcast of Golden Finance On June 3rd, Grandma Coin was invited to participate in the live broadcast of Golden Finance’s “Mining Double Coins” theme. Review link: https://m.jinse.com/live/topic?id=14268. https://preview.redd.it/aaoh8p81uy451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffc1e74ea72ce203f02363ca1efa627af29482a8 4)BTCGrandpa was invited to participate in the 499 Block community AMA On June 11, Grandpa Nina was invited to participate in the 499Block community AMA. The theme is “Coin Circle Big V Coin Grandpa takes you to see the market”, the article review link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/qCnwuaohiwi4BXcbRSJ1gw https://preview.redd.it/47hiynm3uy451.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=380f4f0990dbd235e8b9e85bed44e6c83a762ee2 2.TokenClub Live 1) Summary Recently, Jianan Technology Senior Vice President Lu Xiaoming, OKEx CEO-Jay Hao, Founder of Litecoin Charlie Lee, Binance Vice President Lu Mai, Bitribe Founder-SKY, Luyin Agreement Founder-Wang Dong, Kubi CEO-Johnny Lyu , Co-Founder of BTW.com-Dylan, MYKEY & Coin Hu founder Guru, suterusu investor & Betterbit founder Richard, CasperLabs CEO-Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs COO- Cliff Sarkin, DoraHacks partner & business leader-Yue Hanchao, former Silicon Valley Engineer & Early Blockchain User-Wu Weilong, Distributed Capital Partner and General Counsel Sun Ming, Ontology Founder Li Jun, Cardano Project Founder Charles Hoskinson, QuarkChain Founding Partner Anthurine, ARPA Co-Founder & Chief Growth Officials-Nogi, the well-known KOL Ke Haoran of the currency circle, the “Ancient” old leek who loves trading, One.Love, the early investor of Bicc & the founder of CC Capital & the co-founder of the three o’clock blockchain community Wang Xiaobin, Binance Angel Steven, Binance Angel Wu Mi, Binance Angel July, Injective Protocol Co-Founder and CEO-Eric Chen, BN Capital Senior Partner-Wayne Lin, and TokenClub Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Investment Strategy Senior Expert-Zao Shen Chat with everyone Those things of the blockchain~ On June 1, the global blockchain live festival “Stay Live, Stay Young”-Bitribe +499BLOCK hosted by 499Block and Bitribe was childlike and childlike, celebrating June 1st. A total of 18 industry heavyweights, Jay Hao, Charlie Lee, Mai Lu, SKY, etc., and many industry leading exchanges such as Binance, OKEx, Matcha, Kucoin, Bitribe, BTW, etc. were invited to participate in the live broadcast festival Including Luyin agreement, Harmony, Cortex, Beam, Wedifi, etc., the continuous airdrop of up to 6BTC. https://preview.redd.it/iiwbpnb5uy451.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a31ff98d3fac926e0178dac969949db12e24b86 On June 1st, CasperLabs CEO-Mrinal Manohar, CasperLabs COO- Cliff Sarkin, DoraHacks partner & business leader-Yue Hanchao, former Silicon Valley engineer & early blockchain user-Wu Weilong was a guest at the TokenClub live room, sharing the theme: Ethereum 3.0: Casper Labs, a Silicon Valley star project, takes us to interpret Casper Labs together. On June 1, Binance Luna talked to Lu Xiaoming, senior vice president of Jianan Technology, and talked to us about the mine. Lu Xiaoming believes that blockchain has played a huge role in breaking the “data island” and other aspects, and he has confidence in the future of the industry. Just like the sentence he gave to everyone: “We still believe firmly, still believe, of course ,we still love you!” On June 2nd, Binance Yingge talked to the founder of MYKEY & Coin Hu. Around: “Is Stablecoin a killer application?” Speaking from the beginning of the coin circle to the first pot of gold to the establishment of MYKEY, Guru and shared with us the secrets of grasping so many value projects, investment experience, etc., and stability The key analysis was carried out. On June 3, Binance Sis talked with Sun Ming, Partner and General Counsel of Distributed Capital-”Sun Ming, Partner of Distributed Capital: The past of the currency circle of a lawyer.” Sun Ming is more optimistic about Ethereum than Bitcoin. Sun Ming believes that the easiest way to invest is to choose the most important project in the main track. On June 4, Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cointelegraph Chinese and the Cardano project, gave a live broadcast and shared an in-depth discussion around the topic of “How to Cardano surpass Ethereum after five years of precipitation.” Charles Hoskinson, who was a close working partner with V God and BM, why did he leave Bitshares and Ethereum to create the Cardano project? There is an answer in the live room. On June 4, Binance Li Jiayi talked with Ontology founder Li Jun-”Ontology founder’s blockchain entrepreneurial experience”. For the future of the public chain, Li Jun believes that in the past two years of infrastructure construction, the public chain has paid more attention to technology. However, in the process of open source in the blockchain industry, technical homogeneity is gradually emerging. In the next stage, the public chain will pay more attention to the application of landing entities and offline scenarios, and new focus will appear, which is a good thing for the development of the public chain. On June 5, Binance Seven Seven talked to Binance Captains-Hard Candy, He Rensi, Deer Deer Captain, and three post-90s Binance Captains. Focusing on the topic of “Binan Captain chatting about “Cloud Stall” earning “after-sleep income”, I talked about how the entire currency circle has been following the wind in recent days, to see how the Captain Binance is lying and making money. On June 6, the post-modernist economist hard-core punkist master, Zao Shen, went online, with the theme of “street stalls in the city management area, and speculation of coins out of heaven.” “Street economy” has become the most popular word recently. In this issue, Zao Shen takes everyone to analyze: behind the promotion of the land stall economy, what are the trends and choices in national policies? And analyzed the recent stock market, currency circle, and international policies. On June 8th, Binance Luna talked to Anthurine, the founding partner of QuarkChain, focusing on the “challenges and opportunities of blockchain in the “new infrastructure””. Anthurine is interested in the development of China’s new infrastructure and the blockchain industry in the new infrastructure In order to play its role, how to participate, and the new infrastructure you think they need the underlying architecture of the blockchain and other issues have been shared in detail. On June 9th, Binance Yingge talked with ETC Asia-Pacific community manager Xu Kang Christian, and talked to everyone: the brother story of ETC and ETH. Xu Kang said that after 2016, a hard fork occurred in Ethereum. The newly forked chain is ETH, and the original chain is now ETC. Xu Kang believes that the most suitable native scenario for blockchain implementation is the financial field, followed by the alliance chain that the country has vigorously developed. On June 10th, ARPA co-founder & chief growth officer-Noki as a guest TokenClub live broadcast room and Gate brand public relations Yue Yue connection centered on “ARPA DeFi ideas and growth strategy” centered on the discussion. Nogi talked to you about some ARPA things, and shared her views on the future of the entire digital currency and blockchain industry. On June 10, Binance Li Jiayi talked to the well-known KOL Ke Haoran of the currency circle and One.Love, the “old” leek who loves trading. Both guests were Binance’s “bosses” (rebate partners). The two guests shared their respective stories in the currency circle and the stories they saw, and shared their own experience in currency speculation. On June 11, Wang Xiaobin, an early investor of Bicc, founder of CC Capital, and co-founder of the three o’clock blockchain community made a guest live sharing and shared about the BICC trading platform, recent industry hotspots, and blockchain technology. On June 11, Binance Qianjiangyue spoke to Binance Angels Steven, Wu Mi and July. Binance Angel is a volunteer team established at the beginning of Binance. This team exists as a real voice of community users. The three Binance Angels also shared their daily work in the live broadcast room. On June 12, Binance Sis talked with Injective Protocol co-founder and CEO-Eric Chen, BN Capital Senior Partner-Wayne Lin, and shared their experiences of speculating on coins around “Defi makes the market value of crypto assets tenfold” , Investment experience and experience, a hot discussion was held on blockchain technology and Defi ecology. On June 13th, the currency circle song king Zao Shen went live, and the theme was “Recovery of the Minority, Lost of the Most”. Mainly revolving around this Thursday’s plunge in the currency circle, US stocks have driven the currency market to chat. On the linkage of the US stocks & currency circle, the reasons for the collapse of US stocks, the following market trends and investment strategies were analyzed one by one. For more exciting content, please move to the live room. 3.TokenClub operation data -Live data: 17 live broadcasts in the past two weeks, with over 500,000 views. TokenClub hosted a total of 889 live broadcasts with a total of 45.78 million views. -Binary trade data: In the past two weeks, guess the rise and fall to participate in a total of 5274 times, the amount of participation exceeded 3 million TCT. At present, it is guessed that the rise and fall function has participated in a total of 1.12 million times, with a cumulative participation amount of 501 million TCT. -Chat data: In the past two weeks, a total of 10124 messages have been generated. A total of 4.88 milliom messages have been launched since the function was launched. -Mini-game data: The mini-game has participated in a total of 5069 times in the past two weeks. A total of 1,67 million self-functions have been online. -Cut leeks game data together: Since the game was launched, the total number of user participation in the game was 976086 TCT total consumption was 6.28 million gift certificate total consumption was 16.39 million and TCT mining output was 163812. -TokenClub KOL data: Over the past two weeks, the total reading volume of the BTCGrandpa article has been viewed by more than 300,000 people. -Social media data: At present, the number of Weibo official accounts is 18053 and the number of Twitter followers is 1822 and we have opened the official Medium account this week, welcome to follow. -Telegram official group data: In the past 2 weeks, there were 741 chats in the group, and the total number of Telegram official groups is currently 3113. -Medium data: Medium official account u/TokenClub has published 3 excellent articles, official announcements and updates are published in English, welcome to follow. 4.Communities 1)Overseas community On June 1, TokenClub organized an award-winning event for overseas users to participate in live broadcast interaction, retweet Twitter, and telegram group chat. At the same time, with the increase of live broadcast content, the telegram group is becoming more and more active, and the questions raised by overseas users who have just entered the telegram group are also answered in the first time. TokenClub has translated the high-quality live content of the past two weeks into English and released it to the Medium platform. Please pay attention. https://preview.redd.it/8x7dtqliuy451.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=197e7304091805750d322b09fc469116e813fba5 TCT has been listed on Binance、Okex、Gate.io、ZB-M、MXC、Biki、Coinex、BigOne、Coinbene、Cybex、SWFT、Loopring、Rootrex etc. TokenClub website: www.tokenclub.com Telegram：https://t.me/token_club
More Wall Street Breakfast Podcasts » "Despite several issues of importance - national riots, Chinese relations, an ongoing pandemic - the stock market is primarily focused on a single thing: the restart of U.S. and global economic activities," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. The sentiment led S&P 500 futures to tack on another 0.6% gain overnight as Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed renewed "optimism" about a coronavirus vaccine. On the economic calendar, the ADP Employment Report today will give a fresh read on the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, while oil climbed 2% on anticipated output cuts at the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Come on and Zoom! A surge in video conferencing usage saw revenue growth at Zoom (NASDAQ:ZM) jump 169% to $328.2M as the company reported top and bottom line beats for Q1. Zoom also doubled its revenue guidance for the year, pushing up shares as much as 4.5% in AH trading on Tuesday. In keeping with its previous practices, the firm didn't disclose active user numbers, though analysts at Bernstein estimate Zoom's mobile app had 173M monthly active users as of May 27, up from 14M on March 4. Zuckerberg stands firm after walkout Facing internal unrest over the company's gentle approach to moderating posts from President Trump, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees he stood behind his decision, one he called "tough" but "pretty thorough." Policies will be reviewed to see if they need to change for the future. Facebook employees particularly took issue with a post by Trump that threatened violence, including the words "when the looting starts, the shooting starts." Similar posts on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) were flagged for violating policy. Apple is tracking looted iPhones Thieves who made off with iPhones from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) retail locations in New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Washington and Philadelphia quickly learned that they were loaded with special security software. On-screen messages displayed: "This device has been disabled and is being tracked. Local authorities will be alerted." The social unrest sweeping across the nation comes just as Apple is in the process of opening more than 100 stores following an extended closure due to the coronavirus pandemic. Digital taxes The Trump administration is opening a "Section 301" investigation into taxes on digital commerce - proposed by a range of trading partners - that could affect revenues booked by tech giants like Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN). The move could ultimately lead to punitive tariffs and heighten the chances of another global trade dispute. France already agreed to postpone its new digital tax until at least the end of 2020 after the U.S. threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports like French wine, cheese, handbags and porcelain. Will negative rates be needed? Many have doubted that the U.S. could go negative like Japan and parts of Europe, but St. Louis Fed economist Yi Wen says that's what it would take to achieve a V-shaped economic recovery. "I found that a combination of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies is necessary. Aggressive policy means that the U.S. will need to consider negative interest rates and aggressive government spending, such as spending on infrastructure." Wen cited historical examples like President Roosevelt's aggressive fiscal stimulus package during the 1930s and huge surge in government spending once World War II began. Britain news roundup The Shanghai-London Connect program, years in the making, has so far produced only one listing - Huatai Securities (OTCPK:HUATF) - which raised $1.5B last June. China's market regulator has now approved a fresh listing for China Pacific Insurance (OTCPK:CHPXY), signaling a revival of the program. While the ties could bring the nations closer, other news overnight may go in the other direction. Boris Johnson pledged to let into the country nearly 3M Hong Kong citizens - who are British overseas passport holders - due to China's new national security law, and place them on a possible path to U.K. citizenship. Drug shortages One of the most widely prescribed antidepressant medications in the U.S. has fallen into short supply, according to a new list from the FDA. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) said some versions of its name-brand Zoloft, such as 100 milligram tablets in 100-count bottles, were scarce because of higher demand during COVID-19, while generics faced shortages of certain ingredients. Zoloft prescriptions climbed 12% Y/Y to 4.9M in March, the most ever in the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg, but receded to 4.5M in April. M&A activity French luxury goods group LVMH’s (OTCPK:LVMHF) $16.2B takeover of Tiffany & Co (NYSE:TIF) is looking less certain, according to Women's Wear Daily. It's the latest big merger said to be on the rocks amid a deteriorating situation in the U.S. market brought on by a COVID-19 pandemic and severe social unrest. Further challenges include spending pattern shifts, the collapse of international tourism and trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. 'Biggest Sale in the Sky' After postponing its annual Prime Day event due to COVID-19, Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly setting up a "summer sale" for June to boost sellers hurt by the outbreak and swimming in inventory. The company told brands it would launch a fashion sale June 22, to run anywhere from 7-10 days, and that participation in the event was "invitation only." It's building landing pages with a working title "Biggest Sale in the Sky," and has asked brands to meet an end-of-Wednesday deadline to submit deals with a discount of at least 30%. What else is happening... Sports betting to the rescue in California? Twitter (TWTR) names Pichette as new independent chairman. Google (GOOG, GOOGL) faces $5B lawsuit over 'private' internet use. FAA boss to testify at Senate hearing on 737 MAX (NYSE:BA). Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) trims loss forecast after May rides jumped 26%. Tuesday's Key Earnings Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA) -3.7% AH on light revenue guidance. CrowdStrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) +6.2% AH following a beat-and-raise. DICK'S Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) +3.7% as e-commerce sales rose 110%. Zoom Video (ZM) +1.4% AH posting Q1 beat, aggressive outlook. Today's Markets In Asia, Japan +1.3%. Hong Kong +1.4%. China +0.1%. India +0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London +1.5%. Paris +2%. Frankfurt +2.2%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.8%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude +1.7% to $37.43. Gold -0.6% to $1724.40. Bitcoin -5.6% to $9527. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 0.71% Today's Economic Calendar Auto Sales 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 ADP Jobs Report 9:45 PMI Services Index 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 10:00 Factory Orders
A REMINDER: The future and potential of Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Technology
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency solves myriad problems in traditional finance . It allows person to person transactions without a middleman. Many of these transactions have nominal fees, some have near zero fees. Cryptocurrency also allows anyone to become an investor , from all walks of life. In order to invest in traditional stocks there are numerous bottlenecks for everyday the man or woman . Cryptocurrency does not discriminate . It doesn’t care if you are rich or poor , or what country you are from. Everyone has a chance to invest in something they believe in and to make their situation better. In my humble opinion , within the next 10 years cryptocurrency will be used worldwide by more than 25% of people on a daily basis for transactions , day to day or online . I believe that in Asia in particular, cryptocurrencies will catch on and be used mainstream for transactions and micro transactions before the rest of the world. In the next several years, a handful of cryptocurrencies will become the Coca-Cola and Pepsi of the ecosystem and will dominate the landscape , but bitcoin will always be #1 due to it’s first-mover advantage, it’s security, and it’s history. It is the gold standard that all other coins will be measured in. Any nascent technology , that is exciting, has enormous potential , yet is widely misunderstood the market is going to be volatile. People are still determining its value . The media and huge powerful players that see the potential have a huge influence and incentive to make this market hyper volatile for a plethora of reasons. But, eventually, on a long enough timeline, I foresee, each satoshi being valued at 1 cent, which would mean 1 bitcoin is worth $1 million dollars. Whether, it is in 10 years, in 20 years, or more, I don’t know, but I truly believe at some point in our lifetimes this scenario is entirely possible. In fact, on a long enough timeline, (20–30 years) fiat money could potentially fall by the wayside, with globalization. Think of Records>8-tracks>tapes>CDs>MP3s> now streaming . You have smart cars , smart homes , smart phones , this is smart money . Although paper money would not be done away with completely and would still be accepted , this would simply be a glorified “update “ of our monetary system like an Apple iPhone update. With our current system how can you verify each dollar bill that is in your bank account and where it goes and if it’s really there? It’s just a number in your bank account due to our debt based banking system , one that can technically be erased , at any moment . Think about it, if stuff really hit the fan, whether it be a major financial crisis (even worse than now, like global banks failing), war (God forbid), or something else, which significantly rendered many fiat currencies worthless or at least destabilized them significantly, what would governments all over the world look to use as a replacement, whether temporary or not? Not gold, because it is an impractical means of transaction on a mass scale, is heavy, and is essentially indivisible in real time. No, they would use bitcoin, which is the de facto global currency of the twenty-first century. You can’t argue that it’s not, it’s quite obvious at this point. It is interesting to look at the front cover of The Economist from 1988, 20 years later, entitled "Get Ready for a World Currency". We are on the brink of something truly momentous. Most of the world still does not know the power of blockchain technology, and how it can change everything. Blockchain is the next phase of the technological revolution, and as we know with technology, once a superior more efficient system, product, or service is created, the world does not take a step back. We advance. Blockchain technology is here to stay and it’s not going anywhere, in fact, it is just getting started. This revolution will surprise everyone .
A REMINDER: The future and potential of Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Technology
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency solves myriad problems in traditional finance . It allows person to person transactions without a middleman. Many of these transactions have nominal fees, some have near zero fees. cryptocurrency also allows anyone to become an investor , from all walks of life. In order to invest in traditional stocks there are numerous bottlenecks for everyday the man or woman . Cryptocurrency does not discriminate . It doesn’t care if you are rich or poor , or what country you are from. Everyone has a chance to invest in something they believe in and to make their situation better. In my humble opinion , within the next 10 years cryptocurrency will be used worldwide by more than 25% of people on a daily basis for transactions , day to day or online . I believe that in Asia in particular, cryptocurrencies will catch on and be used mainstream for transactions and micro transactions before the rest of the world. In the next several years, a handful of cryptocurrencies will become the Coca-Cola and Pepsi of the ecosystem and will dominate the landscape , but bitcoin will always be #1 due to it’s first-mover advantage, it’s security, and it’s history. It is the gold standard that all other coins will be measured in. Any nascent technology , that is exciting, has enormous potential , yet is widely misunderstood the market is going to be volatile. People are still determining its value . The media and huge powerful players that see the potential have a huge influence and incentive to make this market hyper volatile for a plethora of reasons. But, eventually, on a long enough timeline, I foresee, each satoshi being valued at 1 cent, which would mean 1 bitcoin is worth $1 million dollars. Whether, it is in 10 years, in 20 years, or more, I don’t know, but I truly believe at some point in our lifetimes this scenario is entirely possible. In fact, on a long enough timeline, (20–30 years) fiat money could potentially fall by the wayside, with globalization. Think of Records>8-tracks>tapes>CDs>MP3s> now streaming . You have smart cars , smart homes , smart phones , this is smart money . Although paper money would not be done away with completely and would still be accepted , this would simply be a glorified “update “ of our monetary system like an Apple iPhone update. With our current system how can you verify each dollar bill that is in your bank account and where it goes and if it’s really there? It’s just a number in your bank account due to our debt based banking system , one that can technically be erased , at any moment . Think about it, if stuff really hit the fan, whether it be a major financial crisis, war (God forbid), or something else, which significantly rendered many fiat currencies worthless or at least destabilized them significantly, what would governments all over the world look to use as a replacement, whether temporary or not? Not gold, because it is an impractical means of transaction on a mass scale, is heavy, and is essentially indivisible in real time. No, they would use bitcoin, which is the de facto global currency of the twenty-first century. You can’t argue that it’s not, it’s quite obvious at this point. It is interesting to look at the front cover of The Economist from 1988, 20 years later, entitled "Get Ready for a World Currency". We are on the brink of something truly momentous. Most of the world still does not know the power of blockchain technology, and how it can change everything. Blockchain is the next phase of the technological revolution, and as we know with technology, once a superior more efficient system, product, or service is created, the world does not take a step back. We advance. Blockchain technology is here to stay and it’s not going anywhere, in fact, it is just getting started. This revolution will surprise everyone .
Why the Covid-19-induced Economic Downturn Can be a Blessing in Disguise
https://preview.redd.it/ei56m90o8hz41.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=b23062c417a8b87d8fd0f228165dabef2f6adf2f Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinath has written a piece reporting and predicting the disastrous consequences of the Coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. Hoping that the economies will be able to restart by the 3rd quarter of the year 2020, this year will see a global GDP growth rate of -3%. This is not only worse than the 2008 financial crisis, Gopinath writes; it is the worst recession since the great depression of 1930s. The cumulative losses to the global GDP over 2020 to 2021 is predicted to be equivalent to approximately 9 trillion dollars, which is greater than the economies of Japan and Germany combined. How Can the Economy Bounce Back? All these assumptions will hold true if the economic institutions are able to bounce back properly. The labour markets and human capital development may be stunted with the crisis in the health and the education sector. So, one of the most crucial factors of production might be in scarce supply even after the economy restarts, in most countries. Investment is also likely to become a big problem as the investors are becoming increasingly risk averse in the wake of this crisis. This is particularly bad news for the developing economies, as they will be facing a lot of capital flight. This again will have negative consequences for the global economy. As a consequence there will be huge job losses, shutdowns and shrinking in the per-capita income. Even the stock and commodities markets are in an exceptionally bad state. On May 13, both stock and oil prices have taken a hit, as there is an increasing fear of a second wave of Covid-19. Indices across the globe plummeted, especially after the statement by Anthony Fauci, the Head of Center for Disease Control, United States, signifying the possible negative consequences of an early lifting of the lockdown, therefore indicating the prolongation of the economic lockdown. Can Digital Assets be the Answer to Global Financial Woes? In the light of these instabilities in the global economic system, it is not surprising that people are looking for alternatives, and are in fact being compelled to do that. In fact, the World Economic Forum, which is the vanguard of the global economic order, has passed been considering how blockchain technology could be used to improve the global supply chains, to make them more resilient in the face of crises like these. Similarly, the COVID-19 crisis has led to a 72% increase in the use of fintech apps in Europe. In late April, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin prices rose by 23% to 9500 dollars in less than a day. This is indicative of a greater interest in cryptocurrencies; and also of the fact that how cryptocurrencies can be much more resilient in the face of a crisis, given that they are not subjected to policy changes, and other forms of market manipulation and direct exogenous forces affecting fiat and equities alike. Therefore in a globalised world they will show the way. Why Cryptocurrency Trading has Seen a Sharp Rise The uncertainty surrounding the current global economic scenario has renewed interest of many traders in the crypto sector. Almost all digital assets trading platforms, or cryptocurrency exchanges, have reported a sharp rise not only in number of new registrations, but in trading volumes as well. Even new traders, without any previous experience in trading either traditional assets, or digital assets, are also taking the plunge into crypto trading. While these are exciting times, there are also risks associated with volatility of digital assets. However, with some inside knowledge into how trading (in its different avatars) works, traders can be empowered to take informed decisions and protect their investments alongside making handsome profits. Leading digital assets trading platform, Bithumb Global, has introduced many innovative options which make trading easy in these times. For example in a time of capital shortage, margin trading can be a great way to leverage the opportunities of crypto trading to make profits. How Does Leverage Trading Work? While we have explained through a step-by-step guide on how new traders can register on the Bithumb Global platform for margin trading activities, let us explain the process and its intricacies a bit better. Bithumb Global margin trading adopts the full-position mode, and provides 5X leverage. At the same time, when the transaction is generated, the currency is automatically borrowed and returned, eliminating the steps of active borrowing and repayment. Considering you have registered onto the platform, or are logged in to it and have also transferred assets in your margin trading account, the system will automatically allocate funds based on the available assets in your margin trading account and leverage multiples. The borrowable value is the largest loanable asset that the user can currently borrow from the platform and it depends on how much asset the user hold in the margin trading account. For example, if the amount of assets in the margin trading account is 10,000 USDT (it will show on the page), the user can borrow a maximum of 38,000 USDT. Therefore, through margin trading, the maximum amount that the user can operate with is 10,000 + 38,000 = 48,000 USDT. Assuming that the price of BTC is 7000 USDT and you are bullish it will reach 8000 USDT, you can borrow USDT from the platform to buy BTC. Now, your USDT position is 10,000 USDT and your maximum loan limit is 38,000 USDT. When buying 5 BTC for a pending order, a loan will be generated immediately after the pending order is placed. The loan amount is: 5 * 7000–10,000 = 25,000 USDT. In the order operation area, click the loan summary to view the asset balance, loan amount and interest payable in each currency. When BTC rises from 7000 USDT to 8000 USDT, you sell 5 BTC at 8000 USDT and the profit is 5 * (8000–7000) = 5000 USDT. You open the position (your target of 8000 USDT per BTC) and once target price is reached, you need to close the position. Our platform provides users with three modes of operation: 1) Quick liquidate In the Quick liquidate mode, the system will automatically calculate the user’s openable quantity. The user only needs to enter the target price and click “sell” to realize the sale of the pending order with the number of openable positions, thus achieving the effect of one-key closing. 2) Close loan In the close loan mode, the system will automatically calculate the amount of money and interest payable by the user. The user only needs to enter the target price and the system will automatically calculate the amount to buy or sell. You can realize the pending order for the corresponding amount of loan repayment. 3) Normal orders After opening a position, in the normal order placing mode, click 100% of the amount to buy or sell to realize the reverse opening order. Let us take the long BTC as an example to understand the three modes. User buys 5 BTC at 7000 USDT, and closes the position when BTC rises to 8000 USDT. The user will automatically close the position by quick liquidate mode. The system will automatically calculate the number of BTC that the user can close. The user has to click “sell” after the BTC price reaches 8000 USDT, to generate a pending order to sell 5 BTC at 8000 USDT in the current commission area. In the close loan mode, the system will automatically calculate the 25,000 USDT and interest payable that the user needs to repay the loan. When user enters 8000 USDT and click on “Sell BTC” to close the loan, he can generate 8000 USDT in the current commission area for sale. In the normal order placing mode, the user enters 8000 USDT and clicks 100% to sell BTC. A pending order with a quantity of more than 5 BTC will be produced. After the pending order is completed, the position will be converted from long BTC to short BTC. In summary, it is recommended that users complete the liquidation operation through quick liquidate when repaying the transaction. In addition, closing a position can also be done by transferring assets. The user transfers the loan amount from spot trading account to margin trading account, and the system will realize automatic repayment. Conclusion You have used money from the platform as a loan, bought assets, opened a position and made a handsome profit when the target was achieved. After paying back the loan as well as the interest on the money that you used, the remainder is your net profit. Margin trading also protects your downside. Your investments are protected when the price of an asset goes down. There are stops placed at the lower end to help you minimize your losses. So it is imperative that you try out margin trading with a small amount to understand the nitty-gritties and feel confident about it. All in all, margin trading has helped thousands of traders on Bithumb Global to leverage the current bullish sentiments in the cryptocurrency markets to make profits and hedge their risks in digital assets. Will you be the next successful trader?
The below is the text from my latest blog post about bonds, if you want to see the original with pretty pictures, charts, graphs etc then click on this link. Ok, the title is an obvious dad joke, but as it happens it still fits in with my naming convention for posts so happy days! On to more serious stuff. The most common proposed asset allocation for people pursuing FIRE seems to involve having absolutely as much invested in equities (or to a lesser extent property) as possible, and reducing every other asset class to as little as possible. Which is certainly one way of doing things, and given the great performance of shares and property over the last 20 years or more there is an argument to be made for doing things this way. It’s certainly not the only way of doing things though, and I will be trying to show why there is a case to be made for investing some money in other asset classes, in particular Fixed Income aka Bonds. So what are bonds? Bonds are a type of debt that is issued by governments, semi-government organisations, and corporations, so basically you’re lending them money. In Australia we also have what are called hybrid securities, but they’ve got some big enough differences that I’ll talk about them in a future post (probably). Bonds are also one of those fun areas where there is an exception to every rule, so although what I’ve written below is broadly accurate there is always going to be some type of bond or a specific issue that breaks one of the rules. So please don’t be an internet hero and “well ackshually” me about premium redemption/issue bonds, soft calls, hard calls, investor puts, floaters, PIK notes and all the rest of it because broadly speaking it isn’t going to make much difference for the purposes of explaining bonds. Basically play nice readers! Talk numbers to me… Bonds are all about math. As I’m sure regular readers of this blog can imagine this makes me very happy, and probably explains in part why I spent a large part of my career working in an area where understanding bonds was crucial, although to make things more interesting we added on a bunch of other stuff like equity options, credit derivatives, FX etc. The main numbers to think about are the price you paid for the bond, the coupon on the bond, the yield on the bond, the time to maturity, and the maturity value of the bond. From those main numbers we also derive a bunch of other numbers I’ll talk about later. Bonds are normally issued at a price of 100, with a fixed coupon (interest payment based on the maturity value of the bond) and a fixed maturity value at a known maturity date. So that’s 4 of the numbers covered already, happy days! A lot of the time though you’re not going to be buying that bond when it is issued, you’ve buying it when it’s already trading in which case chances are pretty good you didn’t pay 100 for the bond. Buying it along the way doesn’t affect the coupon or the redemption amount at maturity or when it matures. What it does affect though is the yield. There are a bunch of different yield measures but I’m going to go with yield to maturity, ie what yield (return) will you get if you hold the bond to maturity. It’s not a perfect analogy, but one way to think about bonds is that they’re like a term deposit where the amount that you can buy it for moves around. If you buy a bond for $10,000 that is going to mature in a year and it has a 2% coupon and redeems for $10,200 (redemption price plus coupon payment), then your yield (2%) is the same as your coupon (2%). But if interest rates have changed and so the price of the bond has changed and you buy that bond for $9,900 or $10,100, then your yield will be different from your coupon, either 3% or 1% respectively. Hopefully that makes sense? BTW I’ve rounded the numbers here to try and keep it nice and simple. Most bonds pay interest on a semi annual basis (I used an annual payment in the example above to make things easier) so to figure out how much interest you get when it gets paid it’ll be the coupon divided by two. Hopefully all of that makes sense, if not let me know in the comments. Issuers of Bonds As I said above the main issuers of bonds are governments, semi government organisations, and corporations. Debt issued by governments is generally the safest type, because so long as they control the printing press then they can always print more money to pay you back. The Eurozone is a bit of an exception to this (understatement of the year) but in most of the other major sovereign bond markets like the US, Australian, the UK etc it’s true. Emerging markets are a bit different because they often issue debt in USD, which means that if things go pear shaped then they can’t just print more money to pay off bondholders. There can also be issues with getting your money back from sovereigns if they have too much debt, such as when they either don’t control the printing press (Greece) or the bond is issued in a different currency (Argentina) but for the most part if you lend money to a developed country in their own currency then you can pretty reliably count on getting your money back. There are also bonds issued by semi government organisations like the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development etc, these are slightly less safe for the most part but you’re still not taking on much risk of not getting your money back. Debt issued by corporations is riskier, partly because businesses obviously can’t just print more money to pay you back, and because corporations can and do go bust. Sure it doesn’t seem likely that Telstra or Woolworths or the big banks are going to blow up any time soon, but there are plenty of other bond issuers out there with much more fragile finances. As you would expect the more risk you are taking on the more return you want in order to be compensation for doing so. This is because unlike a term deposit the value of your capital isn’t protected. If you put $10,000 into a term deposit for a year with an interest rate of 2%, then you know that in a year’s time you will get back that $10,000 plus $200 in interest. If for some reason the bank you invested that money through goes bust, the government will make you whole (up to the value of $250,000 per entity per approved deposit institution. If you invest in a corporate bond and the company goes bust, well you’re probably not going to get all or maybe any of your money back. The good news is that you’re more likely to get money back than equity holders, but if the debts of the company are a lot more than the assets then you’re going to be in trouble. There’s a clear framework for what happens if a company goes bust and who gets paid first and in how much etc, the short version of this is that equity holders are absolutely last in line but depending on what type of bonds you own you may not be a meaningful better position either. And unlike a stock, when you own a bond you don’t own a piece of the issuer of the bond, you just own part of their devt. So if the company does great and starts making a fortune, you as a bondholder don’t get paid any more than what the terms of the bond state. Basically you can get a fair chunk of the downside and none of the upside beyond the terms of the bond. On the plus side this doesn’t happen particularly often, most of the time you’ll get what you were promised Bond ratings Now obviously some companies are more secure and stable than others. If you take a bond from the biggest company in the ASX200 which is CBA, then it’s more likely to fulfil the terms of the bond than whatever the 200th company is. That’s not to say the 200th company won’t, just that there is more risk. The actual degree of this risk is quantified in a couple of different ways. First of all there are ratings agencies out there who will assign a rating from anywhere to super safe (AAA) to D (in default) with a bunch of graduations in between. Anything rated from AAA to BBB- is what is called Investment Grade (IG), everything below that is called High Yield (HY) or less politely Junk. Just because a bond is IG doesn’t guarantee it will pay off, likewise something which is HY isn’t guaranteed or even likely to fail. For the most part though the different ratings given tend to play out that way in the real world, with far less defaults for bonds rated AAA vs bonds rated BB for example. The big three ratings agencies are Standard & Poors (S&P), Moodys, and Fitch, and between them they’ll rate most of the bonds and/or issuers. They tend to be fairly backward looking in my opinion, and they were hugely and obviously wrong on rating mortgage backed securities back in the GFC. Still, they will generally give you a reasonable idea of the creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Because bonds are also traded in the marketplace you can take the yield offered on a bond with a particular maturity, compare it to an equivalent government bond, and using some fun math (yeah baby!) back out a credit spread which that bond trades over treasuries (or swaps but I’m not going to get into that). The higher the spread, the higher the perceived risk of the bond, and vice versa of course. Are bonds safe? Well it kinda depends on what you mean by safe. If you mean are the bonds likely to deliver what the issuer of the bonds promised, then generally yes. As I said with government and semi government bonds you will almost certainly get all your coupons and the maturity value of the bonds delivered on time. Yeah, there are some exceptions to this but you’re unlikely to run into trouble with Australia, the US, the UK, the more economically sensible members of the Eurozone etc. Similarly with corporates the vaast majority of the time you will get your money back on investment grade bonds, and it’s pretty rare to not get your money back on high yield bonds as well. That’s not to say it doesn’t happen, but it doesn’t happen much. If you mean am I going to get back what I put into the bond, well no they’re not necessarily safe, particularly if you sell before maturity. Remember when I said bonds are kinda like term deposits that can trade? Well when they trade those prices move around, and they can move around a lot! Why do bond prices move? There are a bunch of reasons why bond prices move around, the main ones are changes in the interest rate environment, changes in economic conditions, and changes specific to the issuer of the bond. We’ll talk about interest rates first. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with bond yields, which is a fancy way of saying if interest rates (yields) go down then bond prices go up. How much do they go up? Well that depends on the magnitude of the change in rates, and a bunch of factors involving the bond. Basically the longer till maturity on the bond, and the lower the coupon on the bond, the more sensitive it will be to changes in interest rates. This is measured using modified duration and convexity. Modified duration takes into account the timing of the cashflows of the bond (so coupons and maturity) and gives you a number which is typically a little less than that number of years to maturity, the higher the coupon the more it decreases the modified duration. If you multiply that modified duration by the change in interest rates in percentage terms, it will tell you how much the bond price will move by (in theory at least). So if you have a modified duration of say 7.117, then for every 1 percent move in interest rates the bond price will change by 7.117 points. So if your bond price was previously 100 and rates moved down by 1%, then your bond should now be worth 107.117. Happy days! Conversely if rates moved up, well your bond is now worth 92.883. Not so happy days. I’ve used the [ASX bond calculator](http://%20https//www.asx.com.au/asx/research/bondCalculator.do) to give a couple of examples using the current Aussie 10 year bond. You can hopefully see below that by changing the yield on the bond from 1.5% to 1% the market price has gone from 116.87 to 121.83, roughly a 4.25% change in price for a 0.5% change in rates, so presumably the modified duration on the bond is about 8.5. To make things slightly more complex, that relationship isn’t fixed due to something called convexity. Instead of being a linear relationship, it’s actually a changing one (a curve rather than a line). Basically the more bonds prices move away from where they were issued the more that relationship will change. Then there are things like GDP numbers, employment numbers, consumer sentiment surveys, PMI surverys, and all sorts of other economic news which will potentially move bond yields around, generally pretty slightly but it really depends on how important that economic number is and how much of a change from expectations it is. On top of that for corporations changes in their own situations will have an effect on what their credit rating/spread is which will affect prices as well. If a company goes from being loss making to suddenly making a profit, then that’s going to be good for their credit and the bond price is likely to go up. Bad news like a profit warning will potentially mean a higher credit spread and lower price for the bond. There is also general investor appetite for risk, so if investors are happy to take on more risk in their asset allocation (risk on) then they will likely sell off lower risk assets like bonds and buy higher risk assets like equities and to a lesser extent property. If things change and they want to go risk off, then the reverse happens and money tends to come out of equities and into bonds. What happens to bonds if the stock market crashes or we have another GFC? A stock market crash is actually one of the more compelling reasons to invest in bonds. This is because when stock markets crash investors tend to put their money into asset classes where they feel a lot safer ie, bonds. The rationale is that getting your money back is now hugely important, and even more important is not losing all your money as you will in those horrible equities which you knew you should never have invested in but that horrible financial adviser talked you into. People. Are. Not. Rational. People panic. People sell assets which are going down in value even though they know they should be holding on for the long term. This applies not just to retail investors, but also to professionals who should know better. In the GFC I spent plenty of time talking to institutional investors with a long term time horizon (ie 5 or 10 years etc) who suddenly decided they had to get out because of bad one month performance. People will bail out if the proverbial is hitting the fan. I wrote a bit about my experiences with the GFC here, and believe me there are a lot of people who are not going to be as cool calm and collected as they think they will be. It’s very very very very (extra very for emphasis) important to note here that at this point in time investors will not be thinking that all bonds are much the same. When they are looking for somewhere to put their money that they now have after panic selling out of equities, they will park it in the safest place they can find, ie government bonds (aka treasuries). This will cause the price of those bonds to rise because of supply and demand. If they still want to take on some amount of risk then they might put some into investment grade bonds, again this will push the price up a bit. They will almost certainly not put money into high yield bonds, because those are risky and in a crisis will behave pretty similarly to equities, ie they will fall in value. If anything they will more than likely try to pull money out of HY bonds, pushing the price down. This excellent post really shows this in the below graph which shows the average performance of different types of bonds for a 10% or greater fall in the stock market (all of this is for the US but the same principle applies to Australia). It doesn’t work in every case, as shown below (same source), but in almost all cases of a big crash in equities, treasury and to a lesser extent IG bonds gave you a big positive return to help out. HY, not so much and in some cases actually gave you a worse performance than equities themselves. Please believe me when I say it is a huge help psychologically to have some of your investments going up when the others are going down, which to me at least is a great reason to have some money invested in bonds. You’ve convinced me, how much should I have in bonds? Ok so I’m probably being slightly optimistic here given the number of posts I see on reddit about how VDHG would be so much better if Vanguard got rid of that terrible 10% that’s invested in bonds and put it all in equities instead. It would be nice to think though that some people are now realising that come the next crash they too might not behave entirely rationally, and it sure would be nice to own some assets that are going to zig when the stock market zags, so to speak. On the off chance that I have actually convinced people, well it really comes down to your particular risk profile. This is going to be hard to believe for some people, but in the US the default portfolio for most investors is 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Looking at Oz , the default balanced investment option for most super funds over here are supposed to have something like a 70:30 split between growth assets (shares and property) and defensive assets (bonds and cash) although the reality is a long long way from that if you actually look into how they invest (that’s a discussion for another time though). So that maybe provides a useful starting point. I know that the average FIRE portfolio that gets talked about particularly from younger bloggers (who have likely never experienced a sustained down market) is pretty much 100% equities and property, maybe even leveraged up. Which is fine if you can hold on through the downturns, but not everyone can do this because it is extremely difficult to do psychologically. I wish them all the best of luck, but I am pretty sure that at least some of them will decide that it’s all too much and sell whenever we have the next crash. There are exceptions to the rule though. One of my favourite bloggers, and someone who I know thinks deeply about this sort of stuff, is the FI Explorer who has about 15% in bonds and 15% in defensive alternatives (gold and bitcoin) as per his latest portfolio update. Whilst I don’t like Bitcoin myself, or gold for that matter, he writes a good explanation about why he holds both here. I still don’t like either asset myself, but I recognise that I am not infallible, I could well be wrong about this, and certainly historically they have worked well as hedges. In any case the more important point here is that there is basically a 30% allocation to what would be regarded as defensive type assets. This is actually a bit over his actual target of 25% in defensive assets, but he probably sleeps just fine at night. I’m a little more aggressive in only having about 21% of my assets (excluding PPoR) in cash and bonds, but it’s not a huge difference. Both of us have been invested through stock market crashes and hopefully have come to realise that we are not the hyper rational investors that economists believe we are, and therefore it’s best to have a bit invested in stuff that will go up or at least hold it’s value when everything else is crashing. How do I buy bonds? You can buy bonds individually, but you tend to need to have a fair amount of money to do so and you can run into a lot of problems with liquidity, big bid/ask spreads etc, it’s hard to build up a diversified portfolio etc. I buy bonds the same way I buy stocks, ie via an ETF. Most of the major ETF providers have some variety of index ETFs tracking Treasury only or Treasury plus Investment Grade bonds, or you can buy HY stuff if you want. Personally I just use one ETF which has about 75% in treasuries and the rest in IG. There are also some actively managed bond funds out there, either as ETFs or managed funds. For the reasons I outlined above about bonds being a psychological safe harbour I personally would (and do) only invest in bonds which are likely to up in a crisis, but different strokes for different folks applies as always. Any more questions? I’ve only really scratched the surface here of talking about bonds, but at the same time I feel like it’s an overwhelming amount of information. If you have more questions then as always I’m happy to answer them in the comments! Do you invest in bonds? If you enjoyed this post and would like to read more like it then please subscribe!
There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins and 1 million are locked away in some guys wallet to never be seen again. Every day there is some Bitcoin lost... or the wallet is lost. So yes, we are making news ones, but that will stop one day and all we will have is... The number of Bitcoin that can be sold will keep dropping. What is the plan for that? If we make more... We are just as good as the USD. If we make no more? Edit 2: --- This should give a better idea of what I see the problem being While it is hard to get real numbers on how much money is floating around out there. 80trillion US$ is a good guess, if you do not count things like bonds, stocks, gold, homes, cars.... you get the point. If you take 80trillion * it by 4 to make each (1) worth $0.25 80,000,000,000,000 * 4 = 320,000,000,000,000
If you take 80trillion * it by 10 to make each (1) worth $0.10 80,000,000,000,000 * 10 = 800,000,000,000,000
It would seems at the current ammount of USD in the world, eash satoshis could be worth $0.038095238 80,000,000,000,000 / 2,100,000,000,000,000 = $0.038095238 ^ All of that is without counting any loss... but... yeah... It would seem we have all the satoshis we need for some time. To all the people pointing out just how many satoshis there are, I am not asking can it work. I am asking about what can be done about the loss. At best each satoshi can be worth $0.038095238, and that is not taking into account the loss. I am asking because that ^ does not seem like it will work. I am not an economist, I own Bitcoin because I think it stands a good chance. So I guess my true title should have been, how long can that really work? Or maybe I am missing something. It happens to us all from time to time. 😉 -- Reason for edit: fix typo
Wealth Formula Episode 187: Ask Buck Part: Part One
Catch the full episode: https://www.wealthformula.com/podcast/187-ask-buck-part-part-one/ Buck: Welcome back to the show everyone and let's get on with the Ask Buck component of today's show. As a reminder this is part one of two. The next one will be airing next week, but we have lots of questions. I want to make sure we give adequate time and yet not bore the lights out of you by making this into a two-hour show. So the first question from Jeffrey Cattell. Jeffrey asked, hey Buck I had a question about investing with an LLC and mortgages. I had heard that purchasing rental properties inside an LLC limits you to getting a commercial mortgage. Can you discuss the differences between commercial and conventional mortgages and how buying within an LLC affects your options. Yes I can certainly give it a try and of course remember I am not an attorney and I am not an adviser these are my opinions and there are things that I've done etc so don't hold me to it, I'm just giving you my perspective. So let me start out by reminding you a little bit about you know the different kinds of mortgages and they're kind of obvious right I mean there are two really two kinds of mortgages there's two residential there's a commercial mortgage. Now residential mortgages I mean that's the kind that you get for your house that's the kind that you might get for a 1 to 4 unit house or duplex or triplex or quad but you can get a second or third mortgage etc but those are all considered residential mortgages. Pricing is obviously best when it's the first one and it's your primary home but these other residential mortgages that you get as a second or third etc are generally favorable in terms of pricing and amortization and all that stuff as well. Now if your property is already owned by an entity such as an LLC or you're buying it in the name of an LLC by definition you are no longer in the residential category because you're declaring to everybody in the world that this is an investment property in which case you must obtain a commercial mortgage which the major difference between the two frankly is just that the commercial mortgages are more expensive and have less favorable terms than residential ones. So how can you potentially get around this okay. So I let me give you an example and again this is not advice but I'm gonna talk about experience and the experience of others around me so I've had a couple of houses that I own in Chicago one of them that I lived in for a few years and now I rent them all. I bought those houses in my name and therefore at the time we got mortgages and the mortgages are in my name, my wife and my name in this case, but after they were purchased in personal name and mortgages were issued, I then transferred them over especially after obviously when I moved down and I rented the place out into an LLC. So they are now deeded to an entity each shows actually deeded to a separate entity. The process that used to do this is called a quitclaim deed. So if you want to ask your attorney about doing something like this is called a quitclaim deed. Now theoretically and I emphasize the theoretical here if you do this your mortgage could be called. Why? Because in your mortgage usually it's gonna tell you you you know you you know this is a mortgage on you and that if you make these kinds of changes you gotta let them know. In practice though what I have found and this is the part where I keep emphasizing I am not giving you advice is that everyone does this right everyone does a quitclaim deed everyone does it. My dad has been doing this for 50 years and has never had a problem. I'm doing it now and these are major banks they even know about it they don't seem to care. Anyway as long as the mortgage gets paid it seems like no one cares. So bottom line is what most people do what I've done for these smaller properties, buy them in your own name quitclaim deed, so you can't but in your own name get the good better mortgage and then quitclaim. Am I advising you to do that? No. I'm not advising you on anything just what I do what I've done what my dad's done and a lot of people I know have done. Okay all right so that is the first question. Now I'm going to move over to an audio question because some of you weren't chicken. Just kidding I'm kidding about that but audio questions are fun they're fun to hear from people so let's see the so I got have a question here from Garth. Okay Garth here we go. Garth: Hello Dr. Joffrey this is Garth in Portland Oregon. I understand the definition of accredited investor which I am not one but I've also heard a term sophisticated investor and I'm wondering if that is different than accredited investor and if so what do I need to do to get that title? Thanks. Buck: Thanks for the question Garth. So the question really is what is a sophisticated investor? Well first of all why does this matter in the first place it's all accredited sophisticated stuff? Well the answer that, for private placements in real estate a certain kind of offering is frequently used called a Regulation D offering, it's the typical structure. Regulation D, a Regulation D offering allows you to move forward with a private offering without pushing it through the SEC for formal classification as the security. Now why would you not want to file with the SEC? Well there's two reasons really cost in time, it's expensive. But the bigger issue in terms of real estate is a very practical one it's the element of time. So if you're doing an SEC filing and you know on an offering it's gonna take you at least a year to get that through the SEC and contrast that with the fact that when you get a building under contract and you know one of the properties that we do an investor club for example, usually you got some under contract you raise capital you close the building and all that it's happening within three months, so you only usually have a very short period of time, you don't have time to send that to the SEC and let them mess around with it. And the SEC in reality knows this so this is not a new new thing this regulation D, it's been around forever you know but so they provide this as an exception to the rule they say if you're not going to file with the SEC you can still do this legally but it has to be under this kind of exemption Reg D and these are limited, these will be limited to investors that are either accredited which we've talked about before, you make $200,000 a year for two years with a reasonable expectation of doing it again the next year, $300,000 if filing jointly and/or a net worth of $1,000,000 outside of your personal residence. That is an accredited investor. What's a sophisticated investor? Well that's the problem right? So that's that's not very clear, it's not very clear at all and it's a little nebulous and when it's not clear frankly often that becomes the area of abuse. There's no clear definition of a sophisticated investor. Sophisticated investors are supposed to be financially savvy. They're supposed to have experience and knowledge and acumen that makes them more qualified to make decisions about these types of more sophisticated investments than your average Joe. But the problem is that it's essentially up to the fundraiser to determine if an individual is sophisticated or not. Now I have seen situations where people join say a real estate gurus organization and immediately upon paying for the course they are somehow deemed sophisticated and start investing in other students deals within that ecosystem, a bit shady if you ask me but it is what it is. Now that's not to suggest that you in particular are not sophisticated because if you're listening to this show there's a very good chance you are sophisticated, you may you know just understand the language well and you may understand real estate well you may own a bunch of real estate and you want to invest passively in a real estate syndication and in those cases you might be sophisticated, you know. I mean it is a little bit random because you know I run into people who are making you know doctors who are making five hundred thousand dollars a year but they've only made it for eighteen months and so therefore they're not accredited, right? So then you have to make some judgment calls but anyway bottom line is sophisticated is subjective but I think the biggest problem for this terminology is that there really is no safe harbor in my opinion at least that makes it really really difficult to deal with from the side of the operator and therefore in our group in general for investor club it's very rare when we will you know not require the true accredited definition and the reality is most major syndicators won't even consider sophisticated investors who are not accredited for this reason, it just becomes one of those situations you don't want to put yourself in trouble. Okay so let's go to the next question or a couple questions from the same individual so that's fine too, okay from Ron. Ron: I have a question about Bitcoin. Where do the new bitcoins come from in short I know we are accurate we have and they create blocks in those blocks we store transactions and the miners get a fee for building a block that's 12 Bitcoin I believe so are those 12 bitcoins also getting into relation we'll end up with those 21 million bitcoins in the end or is there something else? So that's my question can you help me with that. Thank you. Buck: Sure Ron pretty straightforward I mean without getting into too much technical the new Bitcoin you mentioned you know the whole mining basically the new Bitcoin come from doing the mathematical work to solve these complex mathematical problems that's what these supercomputers do those are the miners and then there's a competition whoever gets the answer first as you mentioned gets rewarded with this fee, they get rewarded with Bitcoin and that's weird those Bitcoin are actually generated so that's what it means to mine Bitcoin and you're also right they'll never be more than 21 million Bitcoin you know so that's one of the true values of Bitcoin is that it is a finite thing there’ll never be more than 21 million so the fact that some go out of circulation to get lost etc it's deflationary in that regard. The last thing I guess I would point out is you know what happens after mining is complete with 21 million well basically miners get paid for exchanges transfers etc at that point but it'll be interesting to see how that all turns out at that point. All right I think Ron has another question here and I think it's related. Ron: Hello there Buck. Ron again here with a question, a what-if scenario. What if my thousand dollar worth of Bitcoin explodes and all of a sudden it's 1 million and I started with storing it on my Ledger Nano S. Is that still a good way to go when it's about a million or maybe 10 million or do I need to have some other methods in place due to spread risks or to be safe? Please let me know. Thank you. Bye bye. Buck: Alright well a good question you know what Ron is talking about is the Ledger Nano S which is a hardware wallet it basically is something that's stored offline. Now listen that's what makes it so resistant to you know any kind of hacking right so you're not it's you're not online if you're not online no one can get to you, you know a hacker and Russia can't get to you, you know. But so if you suddenly end up with a million dollars of Bitcoin or more the reality is that in terms of the ledger it's just as bulletproof as before. I think the issue becomes when people have you know when they get like several million dollars a Bitcoin or Bitcoin million you know multi millionaires and billionaires or whatever then you know I may become a little nerve-racking just to have this little ledger around here right you may want to have you might want to have a little bit more protection than that in which case you might consider some kind of a custodian service like Gemini etc, but that's you know that's not necessary because one of the things about Bitcoin one of the appeals is that itself the ability to self custodian this stuff right you don't need a bank for this. And so I guarantee you that people are walking around with millions of dollars on their ledgers. Now I will point out that you know Ledger Nano S is just one Hardware wallet and you can get a lot more sophisticated and complicated type things you can even get a like a multi signature wallet Hardware wallet would that would require you know multiple people's keys in order to get to the cryptocurrency which you know I mean if you end up with a ton of money in crypto currency that's you know that's probably something that you might want to do. Okay next question from John Jillette. Hi Buck love your podcast been extremely helpful in increasing my financial intelligence. There's been talk about impending financial crisis from well-known economist Dent, Rickards and Schiff. What do you believe in the percentage chance that we go into a 2008 like financial crisis in the next couple years? Also as the recession is always coming how much dry powder do you recommend having at this point in the cycle scoop up deals when there's “blood in the streets”? Good question John the problem in my view with those guys that you talked about Harry Dent, Jim Rickards, Peter Schiff all super smart guys right and Harry Dent was on the show recently, is that they've all been predicting the same darn thing for at least four or five years now, right? I mean and it hasn't happened and when there is some sort of pull back because as you said there's always gonna be a recession at some point why is it after you blood in the street, you know? The bottom line is that you know Harry Dent in our last show even said you know I said dude it's hard to predict when right yeah it's hard to predict one I absolutely admit that. So what do you do then because let me give you an example of the counter risk to this whole you know this whole world of fear-mongering, and I'm not saying those guys are just doing that on purpose for that reason, I mean I do think that you know if your whole thing is like the world is coming to an end and you need to buy gold and your major business is selling gold then you know it's a little bit hard to swallow sometimes but let me give you an example of what could happen. So six years ago because you know I said before that Peter and you know all these guys have been talking about for five years at least about how you know everything's going to hell. Six years ago there was a company that we work with now called Western Wealth Capital and Investor Club and they have an investor who has put in twenty five thousand dollars and every deal for the last six years and they have a really unique model of people within our group know a lot about it. The total of seven hundred fifty thousand dollars was invested out-of-pocket during that period of time but the principle is now worth four million dollars. Now those are pretty exceptional numbers right that comes out to you know an annualized return of about a hundred percent and I'm not saying that that is you know what's going to happen in the future, but what I would skew to consider is what if we'd been listening to that advice for five years now? If this person had done that would they have done well? Okay well obviously not because you know if you stopped investing because of because of fear then you didn't make any money. Is it a guarantee that they would have lost money? Absolutely not. I mean listen these deals are really solid they go in there and they start to de-risk these things right away by driving up net operating income and maybe you know maybe wouldn’t have made as much money, but would it have lost a bunch of money? Well personally I just don't I don't think so. Now listen I'm not saying there will not be a recession. As I said eventually there will be. The problem is that we cannot time it and we cannot really quantify the magnitude. As much as people would love to talk about this blood and the street thing I mean the major mainstream economists and ITR Economics who I like don't think it's gonna be that big, they think it's gonna be stuck to the manufacturing and industrial sectors. So what do we do? So what do I do? I should say that I stick to quality assets and quality areas, I create value the moment you know that and then we create value in those assets the moment we acquire them, right? So that helps that whole value add concepts helps de-risk any project by dynamically decompressing cap rates. So think about it you you know you you buy something at a certain cap rate all the sudden you're driving in net operating income and you dynamically decompress your cap rates you have a better margin over your debt burden your risk is significantly lowered and if you can get all of your money out of the deal with a refinance all of your risk is gone okay. So now if there is a downturn and you're in one of these things you want to be in a position where you can ride out the storm with assets you already own and then, and then, this is the important part, lean into the downturn right lots of people freeze up when things go south or but the right thing to do is to be greedy when others are scared. So by continuing to deploy on a regular basis my personal belief is that you can volume average your way through a downturn and get capital preservation and then hopefully pick up some really cheap assets, ride them back up and hopefully it you know you end up in really good shape. That's my own approach to this. I'm not sitting around waiting for zombies to you know erupt out of the ground and start you know only accepting silver dollars, you know from a monster box. I'm just that's just not I just don't see it. As for the current financial climate I'd say the banks are, and I think again most economists would tell you that the banks are in a lot better shape than they were in 2008. I don't think that there's necessarily anything that looks like 2008. I think GDP has grown at a record for a record length of time it's been sluggish but on the other hand you know so in other words there will be some kind of recession eventually but why does it need to be blood in the streets? See we have to remember that before 2008 there was such thing as a recession that you just hear about like three months after it happened right it doesn't always have to be cataclysmic. Now you know talking about these guys you know Peter Schiff himself talks about you know the nature of this crisis that he sees happening and what he describes it as, is a dollar crisis. And if it's a dollar crisis what that means is it's gonna result in inflation. Now inflation is good for real estate. Conversely you've got Harry Dent who's talking about a deflationary recession which I have a harder time believing because of how it affects our own ability to pay you know Treasury holders, US Treasury holders, but you know even Harry thinks in his scenario that well you might as well you know own multifamily real estate because the demographics would suggest that that would be a safe place to be now Harry's a demographics guy. Now listen who knows what'll really happen just because Harry said that and Peter said that and I said this it could be completely something different, but if you do nothing and keep all your money in a bank you're guaranteed to lose money with inflation in my opinion because again I don't think it's gonna be deflationary I've been over that before. And as for dry powder it’s always good to have some obviously right I mean it's always good to have some, so it's hard to quantify how much. The way I have done it is I use as you may know I'm sure you know by now I am an advocate for Wealth Formula Banking because I like the option of you know being able to borrow etc. now for this purpose I use Wealth Formula Banking because it's it's sort of a source of liquidity for me that I can access very quickly that it's out of the banking system but how much dry powder I keep, generally relies on my contribution to the Wealth Formula Banking policy every year. So it's one of the things that sort of keeps me honest right I have to put a certain amount every year in there all the way up to the paid up perdition's and so that's basically circulating as my you know almost like a bond portfolio of liquidity in case I need it, so that's how I do it. But that being said, I'm also in a situation where I am very incentivized to invest rather than to keep my money around or invest in anything that's not real estate so I probably could do a better job with keeping a little bit more dry powder around. Anyway right now, so Wealth Formula Banking that's where my dry powder is and like I said that's where it keeps me disciplined, but I do not have a crystal ball and I don't really I'd really don't foresee myself anything horrible happening so I mean if I did if I was sure of it I'd probably I'm sure I would just you know have a bunch of money sitting around but I don't see any serious indication of that frankly. You know and I should point out I saw today you know Ray Dalio came out and said even about the stock market that he's bullish still right on the stock market, right? I'm not saying I'm bullish on the stock market but the point is there's some still some big names not really like hiding out in shorting markets at this point. So anyway I don't know that I even came close to answering your question but I talked a lot so let's see here. Next question Jason got an audio question. Jason: Buck, this is Jason Beck from The Rock Arkansas. Wanted to see if you had come across any good ways to utilize raw land investments for a tax-advantaged purpose. I've got some land that is timber and some more land that is pasture that we keep some horses on. I want to see if you had seen anybody utilize either various schedules on their tax returns or creation of entities to try to gain some tax advantage from those type of investments? Buck: Yeah the big one that comes to mind Jason is conservation easements. Now you know as soon as I say that a lot of people think oh that's that one thing that's kind of like that the IRS hates and they write articles about to try to scare people off of them and that's actually not totally the case the thing that IRS really hates are the syndicated conservation easements even those you know they're totally lawful but what I'm talking about is conservation easements on your own land which really are not controversial for the most part at all. So basically here's how that works okay. Effectively what you do in a conservation easement is you commit your land you still keep it you don't give it but you're giving up certain rights, you remember like yeah if you do any kind of real estate you know there's land rights there's ground rights all that kind of stuff. Anyway, in this case you're giving up the right to develop the land and or or in some cases if it's a mining situation, giving up the right to drill on the land. And if you do that what's interesting is that and what's powerful is that you can if you’ve done it appropriately get a valuation on your lands maximum value if it were to be used for that other purpose. Well let's give a give you an example so it's not so nebulous in other words say the alternative of keeping your horse pasture land was to build a multi-million dollar resort and you had all the plans you had architectural drawings etc. In that case you could theoretically get a valuation of how much that resort would be valued at and take the deduction for the amount of the valuation that you got instead of the value that your land currently has. So as you can imagine that could be an enormous potential tax benefit and so I would probably look into that for sure there's some very famous people who use that, Ted Turner CNN that's why he's got so many Buffalo, people say Donald Trump that's one of the reasons why he has so many golf courses but of course we don't see his tax return so we don't know that for sure. Anyway I know the guy you should speak with and I have already sent you a connection via email. Okay next question when evaluating a private placement opportunity I should say I don't I for some reason I don't have a name on this one so I apologize, but when evaluating a private placement opportunity, how important is it to you that the general partner has their own personal money invested in the deal? Well the answer is it depends okay. Let's take Ken McElroy for example let's take Western Wealth Capital and those guys for example Ken's be a better example because Western Wealth Capital I know got a couple of million dollars in every deal but let's take Ken. In the past you know where he was I've invested in as a limited partner in companies deals where you know I neither Ken was putting any money in and does that bother me not really. Why? Well listen I know Ken's model and he doesn't really get rewarded unless the asset performs. I also know Ken personally and know that he works hard, has a lot of integrity and takes pride in his work. He's got a tremendous track record and I also know that it takes a lot of work to do what he does, so not getting rewarded financially until the you know property starts to really perform the way he pro formas it out is a type of sweat equity because what you're talking about ultimately is skin in the game. Does the operator have skin in the game? And the question really I think is better termed you know does the operator have skin in the game? Because the skin in the game can also come in the form of sweat equity. Now if Ken in his case doesn't get paid unless investors get paid, I would definitely consider that skin in the game knowing how much work that is. Now the problem these days in my opinion is that there is you know there's everybody and their mother is a syndicator. And you know what I'm talking about right? So you've got all these people I was in here, I'm a full-time software engineer we're 50 hours a week and oh yeah and I just went to a guru course and I'm you know I'm taking down a twenty five million dollar asset would you like to join me? Those people are everywhere now and in those kinds of deals personally I would never invest anyway. However, if you do you should demand heavy skin in the game through cash why because you don't you know you don't know what they're gonna do, they don’t have a huge track record, they've got full-time jobs this isn't just about plugging in a property manager and taking your cut that's BS you know but honestly I would stay away from those deals all together personally you don't want to be part of someone's learning curve. All right let's see next question I have this via email here, I'm gonna read it. Okay so the next question is from Kenny. Kenny French is asking he says hi Buck I'm a podcast listener and Western Wealth Capital investor as well. I'm currently working with Rod Zabriskie to set up Wealth Formula Banking life insurance policy. So far everything has been going pretty smoothly with one exception. One of the features that I really like about the life insurance policy is it offers a way to have money grow that is protected from creditors and it really gives me a peace of mind to know that I will have a good chunk of money set aside for my family that can't or at least is very difficult for creditors or anyone else to touch. In looking how to hold that policy in a trust LLC personally etc I found out that California, where I live, that's where I live too, has terrible protections for life insurance policies. They only exempt a very small amount less than $20,000 presumably of cash values what we're talking about there, but from the little bit of research I did it looks like a Nevada trust may be the way to go, either way I think this would make for a good podcast topic to do a bit of a dive into so that's why I'm reading that and I got Kenny's okay to do this. So I thought was a good question. So what I did is I actually ran this by Doug Lodmell of Lodmell and Lodmell. Doug is of course my asset protection attorney, very smart guy, all-around good guy. I also want to put a plug in for him if you go to wealthformula.com and you go to there's basically some where you can click there and Doug did this really good webinar on asset protection from sort of the very basic to the more complex and he's just really really good so I would highly recommend you consider using him if any of this stuff is relevant to you. So here's the deal, and here's effectively the answer I've got from Doug: life insurance in many states is already a protected asset, so part of the issue is you got to check in your own state like Kenny did, as in some states like Kenny he's talking about California life insurance turns into pretty much just like an asset like any other asset and it has to be put into an asset protected vehicle. But because it is life insurance, there is an additional consideration of what happens when the policy pays out and how that affects the estate and for that reason there's also an additional choice which is an ILIT which stands for irrevocable life insurance trust. So the issue is that life insurance obviously has a death benefit which could impact the size of your estate and this must be a primary driver for where you hold it. If the death benefit will create or increase in estate tax, then the policy should be held by either an ILIT or another type of gift type trust like a dynasty trust. If the death benefit will not affect the estate tax because the total estate is below the exemption then I would suggest using an asset protection trust asset protection structure to hold the insurance if you are not in a state with good protections. He says it also matters if the insured is using life insurance as a savings vehicle and will need it for their retirement, as often we do with these kinds of things. If so then it is better in an asset protection plan. So I know that was a lot. So first of all if you know you're one of these if you have one of these plans I mean Kenny brings up a very good point you you sure look into this if you're looking for the asset protection component of this too. A few thoughts here okay, first of all you know the first thing to do is check your state and see what kind of protections you have. Next you know the ILIT is certainly an option right I mean it's it's just it's not very expensive it is a couple thousand dollars and you can use that, the problem with that it's difficult to to borrow out of. The next thing to consider is okay how big is that life insurance policy right? If it's three four million bucks, may not be a big deal especially if the rest of your estate is sitting outside of your estate or you've got a plan to have it outside of your estate then you can still figure out you know how to keep you know your estate stuff below you know whatever I think it's probably gonna sunset down to five and a half million or something like that for estate taxes. So in that regard, it seems to me that the smart thing to do would be to use like an asset protection trust which is you know certainly an option that that Doug can help you with, and frankly the nice thing about that is that you know you've got the protection from the creditors and it's still available for retirement. Now if you've got a great big you know death benefit on there, the next step really and actually this step that I've got is a dynasty trust, that was a Nevada dynasty trust and I've got one of those. In that situation though you are getting a trustee involved so you're not directly controlling it. Now I can tell you from personal experience that it's actually relatively not that difficult, you know to work with the trustee, but it does make it a little bit more difficult you know to get the cash available for the insured to use so that's the one thing to consider. Now Doug makes the point that you can also in some situations take an asset protection trust that automatically converts to a dynasty trust at death so then it's really the most flexible tool for most people so that might be the way to go. I think based on what I'm hearing and that's actually different from what I did but you know it was before I met Doug but I might have done like an asset protection trust that converted into a dynasty trust later that might have been what I would have done. Anyway complicated question complicated answer and that's kind of where I'll leave it because I've got a little headache from that last one at this point. So that's it for this week and that is just like half the questions we've got. We've been going on for a while. So that's it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast for Ask Buck Part One and we'll be back next week with part two.
January 9th, 2022 Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers on September 15th, 2008, the international financial fabric was torn apart into an existential crisis. Threatened by the "Great Recession", the global ruling class was forced into taking decisive action. Most Governments opted to bail out the banks, driven by their mantra of "too big to fail". Elsewhere, financial authorities and Central Banks opted to do the unthinkable by letting the market collapse. In the wake of the global recession, a plethora of financial reforms were carried out. Some economists revisited the concept of doing away with fractional reserve banking altogether, with Iceland nearly leading the way. Most conventional politicians, meanwhile, opted to enact some of the most complex regulatory legislation in financial history, adding over eleven thousand pages to the bureaucratic burdern in the process.In the meantime, the regular "bloke on the street" had finally had enough and clamoured for change. Today, nearly fifteen years later, "recession" has once again become the name of the game. With the European economy entering a state of contraction and German commercial banks facing imminent collapse, the global economic system is on the edge of being subjected to the worst economic crisis in recorded history. And while the Bundestag has already **recommitted itself to a bailout, others have yet to respond to the impending financial meltdown. Although Chile and the rest of Latin America are somewhat isolated and thus shielded from the "European dumpster fire", the Government is keenly aware that the situation could quickly take a turn for the worse. As such, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Chile have decided to embark on what they call "The Great Redemption". And although financial reform is contrary to the Allende Administration's strictly interim nature of governance, the President believes that the State has an inherently entrenched obligation to protect its citizens from suffering at the hands of the financial system. "The old continent has finally met its end", an increasingly aged and fragile Allende told the New York Times. "And in this new world order, Chile leads the way."
Having already adopted an inflation target of roughly twice the conventional level, the Central Bank of Chile has formally decided to end its active monetary policy. Citing the recent European debacle as a conclusive refutal of William Taylor's monetary policy rules, the Central Bank has instead decided to put Milton Friedman's K-Percent Rule) into practice. Starting on February 1st, all monetary policy will be strictly determined by a hard-coded computer programe1. Hardwired to increase the supply of the Chilean Austral by a fixed rate equivalent to real GDP growth, the antyclical nature of the resulting monetary policy will bring stability to the national currency, helping to preserve Chilean purchasing power whilst simultaneously adhering closely to the 4% inflation target based on the Phillips curve.
Leveraging experiences from the Swedish Riksbank's e-Krona and similair efforts by the Bank of England, the Central Bank of Chile will be issueing the world's first fully implemented central bank digital currency. Stylized as the Æustral, the currency will be largely based on the value of Chile's legal tender of the same name. The Æustral is primarily intended for relatively small transactions between citizens, businesses and Governmental entities.
Instead of issueing services to the public directly, the Central Bank of Chile will be implementing a market-driven "Indirect Access Approach". Under this scheme, the Chilean Central Bank will issue the Æustral, whilst private sector parties will provide so-called "Digital Cash Accounts" and their accompanying services2. As all funds deposited in a DCA are held in full at the Central Bank, providers will be able to pay an account balances in their entirety and ad any time to their customers * DCA providers will, in turn, be prohibited from lending money or otherwise taking risks with their deposited funds.
The Central Bank of Chile notes the following advantages of the Æustral:
Enhanced Monetary Policy - The issuance of digital fiat money provides the Central Bank with more tools and leeway in terms of reactively and proactively influencing monetary policy. It, for example, allows for interest rates to be set at negative rates with relative ease. In the case of Chilean monetary policy, the Æustral will allow for the proactive issuance of "Helicopter Money" into the economy, occuring within the fraework of the Banks's new monetary policy;
Enhanced Financial Safety - By allowing the general public to open and use an account at the Central Bank and settle transactions using the Æustral instead of regular bank deposits, the concentration of liquidity and credit risk within the various payment systems will be sgnificantly reduced. This will not only lead to systemic reduction of "too big to fail" banks in the financial system, but will also provide Chileans with a genuienly risk-free alternative to deposits at commercial banks. The latter will in turn lead to the reduction of "moral hazard' currently being practiced by banks as a result of deposit insurance;
Competition & Innovation - By providing Chileans with a safe public banking alternative, the regulatory framework surrounding banks can be significantly reduced and simplified, making it easier for new entrants to enter the financial market and offer competitive and innovative banking solutions to consumers. The sytem will also reduce or elliminate the need for smaller institutions to run their payment through larger "system and settlement banks", which have traditionally abused their monopoly to charge exorbitant transaction rates, thus unfairly disadvantaging smaller market players;
Seigniorage - Over time, the increased issuance of the Æustral by the Central Bank will increase the proceeds of the money creation process. These windfalls subsequently end up in the national Treasury, thus increasing Government revenues which can subsequently be used to serve the public good;
Alternative Finance - By issueing the Æustral, the Central Bank of Chile can account for decreases in the money supply stemming from the proliferation of alternatives to money-creating banking, such as peer-to-peer lending, thus allowing for the further proliferation of said alternatives without adversely affecting the money supply; and
Financial Inclusion - DCA Providers, whose core business consits of facilitating transactions first and foremost, will be able to offer financial services to customers who are normally exlcuded from conventional banking.
Privatisation with a Human Face
Founded in 1953 by President Carloz Ibañez del Campo, the Bank of Chilean State is the country's third largest bank. BancoEstado has been ranked Latin America's safest bank since 2012, and the 48th safest bank in the world and 6th in the Southern Hemisphere since 2015. BancoEstado - whicich is rated AA3 by Moody's - is furthermore the only bank to service all of the country's communes, while being the sole financial service provider in theseventy-seven of the most remote Chilean localities.
With the introduction of the Æustral as public banking alternative, BancoEstado's role as a public bank has become redundant. As such, the Ministry of Finance has decided to divest itself from the institution. This shall not be achieved through publicly traded stocks, however. Instead, BancoEstado will become a socially responsible co-operative bank, with both old and new customers being offered ownership shares and certificates and thus participation in the decision-making process instead. After the completion of this "social privatisation", the freshly minted Banco Popular de Chile will become the world's largest co-operative bank, surpassing France's Crédit Agricole in the process.The Government intends to raise between $40 to $55 billion3 through this method, which will subsequently be invested into the Chilean Commonwealth Fund in order to significantly increase the size of the country's "rainy day fund".
In order to increase consumer confidence in the financial system, the Chilean Government will be expanding the country's deposit insureance scheme, which currently covers deposits of up to $5,566, to $13,500. The maximum insured deposit value will furthermore be indexed in line with GDP growth.
Additionally, the Government will be reforming the framework of the deposit insurance scheme as a whole. Starting on June 1st, deposit insurance will stop being a mere Government-baccked deposit guarantee. Instead, banks must pay insurance premiums into the Chilean Commonwealth Fund, with premiums being based on the level of risk associated with a particular bank. Banks may opt out of this arrangement, but this will likely result in a public relations fiasco. This approach will further help reduce the issue of moral hazard in the financial sector5 .
In order to allow banks to differentiate themselves in terms of risk profile, the fractional reserve limits under which Chilean banks abide will be lowered from 13% and 10% for small and large banks, respectively6, to a uniform rate of 7,5%. Banks will - under the radically enhanced free market environment - be able to differentiate themselves to consumers by potentially offering higher reserve rates at the expense of lower interest rates, and vica versa.
In order to inrease the financial health of banking institutions, the Chilean Government will be instituting a requirement for banks to implement so-caled "automated anti-cyclical capital reserves". These reserves shall amount to a minimum of 5,5% of a financial institution's non-weighted and risk-weighted debt-to-equity ration.
In light of the impending financial crisis, banks shall be required to "accept loss sooner" by - among other things - cancelling a mortgage when a persons is forced to hand in the key to his house due to financial troubles, with the bank taking over the property instead. This stipuplation is based on preexisting regulations in several US states, as well as on islamic banking and finance practices, where the financial institution effectively acts as a co-owner of the property in question.
In order to permanently entrench the public interest into the institutional decision-making process, banks will be required to institute a Societal Council. Banks must consult said councils on all important business matters and decisions, and the council's opinions and recommendations must be weighted heavily into every major institutional decision.
Following the Dutch example, Chilean banks will transition to a common Automated Teller Machine design managed by a non-for-profit organisation. This will allow for a reasonable level of service to be maintained, while also alloing for greater efficiencies by allowing redundant ATMs to be done away with.
The Chilean Government hopes - above all - that its willingness to undertake radical reforms will serve to inspire Euuropean Governments and Central Banks into being ambitious in their response to the continet's economic issues. At the same time, the Chilean financial sector is expected to become one of the world's most innovative, competitive and dynamic payments markets, continuing the country's reputation as Latin America's "Shining Star".Only time will tell whether or not these reforms will actually bear their fruits.
1 - Based on a quote by Milton Friedman.
2 - Customer support, mobile and internet banking, etc
3 - I based this figure on the 2018 Annual Report, where on page 46 it states that the bank's total consolidated assets total more than $40 billion dollars. The figures I gave in terms of revenue are based on the subsequent economic growth, the willingness of Chileans to gain ownership of the bank for nationalist reasons, and on thee fact that both Peter_j_ and ForestChapel valued the bank at $50 billion in previous seasons. Please feel free to provide me with imput as I'm not very well vested in corporate valuations.
5 - This is based on the so-called Bibby Plan, which is briefly described on the deposit insurance wikipedia page, as well as on basic econoics.
6 - Regulations regarding the creation of a new bank will be adressed in a separate post.
[M] Much of the stuff in this post is based on recommendations by the Sustainable Finance Lab, a high profile Dutch financial think tank. As such, some of the stuff in this post might be a bit out of place considering the vastly different nature of the Dutch financial sector. Most of it should still be universally applicable, though.
Why I believe in distributed ledger technologies (DLT)
At its core, DLT represents a new form of communication technology. The Economist was right. The most groundbreaking part of DLT is the provision of trust through network effects and economic incentives. This trust allows the network to act as a value transfer mechanism. Whether the value being transferred is a unit of currency (BTC/BCH/LTC), a component of a protocol (ETH/ADA/EOS), a representation of network ownership (NEO/VET) or a utility token (XRP/XLM).
Progression of revolutionary communication technologies
Each of these have been revolutionary in their own right and have caused massive social, cultural and financial changes in human history.
speech/language = audio communication within a life span
written word = visual communication beyond a life span
printing press = massively distributed visual communication
telephone = audio communication at light speed
radio = massively distributed audio communication at light speed
television = massively distributed audiovisual communication at light speed
internet = massively distributed audiovisual communication at light speed + network effects
the internet has lead to the rise of massive companies through network effects. their net worth derived from the data network or network participants that they influence. amazon with market data and market participants. google with raw data from most of the world. facebook with social data. uber with their driver network. airbnb with their property network. etc.
these companies are valuable because they have derived value from their network participants. by providing the centralised infrastructure, they own the data each participant supplies.
The next step in communication
blockchain/DLT = internet + decentralised + trust = information AND real value transfer
decentralised currency. decentralised market economy. decentralised big data. decentralised social networks. decentralised search engines. true IoT. no more large central repositories of information, power or value.
this is the age, where instead of owning stock in large centralised companies, we own decentralised currencies and participate in decentralised networks. value is created and distributed through the decentralised market economy as people trade peer-to-peer network-to-network without intermediaries.
This is still a long way away. Much of the world is still transitioning into the internet connected world. My long term hope is that we transition towards this decentralised economy in a stable manner, people truly own their own data and we become 100% energy self-sufficient with renewable energy.
We are all on the same team. Positive news for one crypto is positive news for all cryptos. Let's help each other to foster blockchain adoption.
With the influx of new users in late 2017, I was hoping as a whole we would come closer to worldwide adoption of distributed ledger technologies and decentralised trustless networks. I think adoption is still slowly happening but as a community most of us have been tempted by Mammon and our dopamine addictions. I feel there are more traders looking to make quick gains than those who believe in the technology behind what they are buying. "Buying the rumour and selling the news" is the ultimate testament to the state of crypto. People are irrationally optimistic and looking to make a quick buck off each other by engaging in short term trades, timing the market pumps and dumps. I don't mind the shilling. (As long as it's thought out and logically presented, not mindless shilling e.g. XCOIN MOON) Shilling helped me find two very profitable investments, both of which I still hold. Shilling is good for crypto as a whole. It is optimistic, encourages adoption and gets people to engage and ask questions. Shilling is a dysphemism for advertising from an optimistic community. A fair portion of people only find out about new investments from shilling. On the other hand, I'm not a fan of the spread of FUD, in particular the spread of misinformation. The world today has enough "fake news". We don't need more bullshit being spread in crypto. If you think someone is flat out wrong, don't attack their character or spout one of these. Prove why they are wrong with evidence. If you think a project is not promising, outline why you think that way in a rational manner with sources. Even better, why not make a suggestion how you think it can be done better? Add value to the crypto world as a whole rather than take away from other assets you perceive to be competition. Valid skepticism is important, validity needs to be logically and factually sound, not e.g. XCOIN IS A PUMP AND DUMP. Regarding blockchain competition...
there is actually no such thing like Enemy in this industry, at least not at this stage. I don't understand why people would do anything to jeopardise a development of Blockchain. It should be a open market and all of startups should work together to push forward the development of technology and applications to help the business
These tenets guide me in both bull and bear markets
Your investment is not your sports team. Keep an open mind and ask questions.
You can learn something from everyone. Everyone is a potential teacher.
If you disagree with someone, try and justify why. (First to yourself, then others)
We should all try to be honest about our intentions
Disclose your conflicts of interests if you have any
Add value to the community. Spread knowledge and answer questions in your community. Correct misinformation spread by others with sources.
Remind yourself why you got into crypto in the first place.
The enemy isn't other blockchain projects. Global adoption is our common goal. To get there, we need to do better.
Daily analysis of cryptocurrencies 20191105 (Market index 54— Neutral state)
https://preview.redd.it/nckyr1qb1vw31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=54af97ca72f567d38a962224ab84464c5a258bd5 Coca-Cola Embraces Blockchain Technology Developed By SAPAlabama-based Coca-Cola has become the latest major corporation to recognize the advantages of blockchain technology.According to a recent Business Insider report, Coca-Cola’s bottlers now rely on the blockchain solution, which was developed by German software corporation SAP to keep track of all transactions that take place within 70 franchises. Æternity Blockchain Developers Take On Ethereum With Final HardforkThe core development team for Æternity, a next-generation, open-source blockchain for building decentralized applications, announced its LIMA hardfork on Nov 5, releasing the latest software to miners and in fact, handing over governance to the community. The third major æternity protocol upgrade this year, LIMA adds a sophisticated, improved Virtual Machine, governance, and naming system to challenge Ethereum and other blockchain platforms. Æternity is one of the most active blockchain developer communities measured by code activity. Core developers proposed hardfork, LIMA software release to miners, who will mine or not mine fork of aeternity blockchain. Bangkok Bank To Launch Blockchain-Based L/C Service Next MonthBangkok Bank (BBL) is set to roll out a blockchain-based letter of credit (L/C) service next month and aims for the innovative financial service to increase the bank’s trade finance business.The bank will use R3’s Corda-powered Voltron platform to digitise the L/C process, said executive director Charamporn Jotikasthira.BBL is the only Thai bank among the eight founding members of Voltron, which include BNP Paribas, HSBC, ING, and Standard Chartered Bank. Chinese Regulator Investigates Firm’s Blockchain Efforts Amid Stock SurgeAn obscure porcelain and education firm is under investigation by a top Chinese regulator after it became one of the most sought-after blockchain stocks last week.Guangdong Great Wall Group, whose stock price skyrocketed for five consecutive days last week after Chinese president XI Jinping praised blockchain technology, said it was under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The investigation comes as the government appeals for “rational” investments in Chinese blockchain and fintech firms. https://preview.redd.it/l92x7g7b0vw31.png?width=504&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc8a2baef8563304f79bc5617f8d7ee08b85cc34 BTC — BTC rose rapidly in the early hours of this morning, reaching a maximum of $9645, now falling back to around $9400. In the past 24 hours, the net outflow of BTC funds is close to US $50 million, and the outflow of market funds is significantly increased compared with the previous cycle. BTC made a tentative pull in the early morning to test the upper resistance. In terms of the 4-hour line, the overall volume is not obvious, and the follow-up strength is insufficient, and the breakthrough is not successful. The domestic market is still dominated by shocks, and may withdraw again after the failure of short-term breakthrough to prepare for the next round of offensive. The upper resistance continued to focus around $9600, while the lower support continued to focus on $9000. In terms of operation, it is suggested to control the position and wait for the right opportunity to build the position. Review previous articles:https://firstname.lastname@example.org
Encrypted project calendar（November 5, 2019）
Nexus (NXS)：05 November 2019 Tritium Official Release “Remember, Remember the 5th of November, the day Tritium changed Distributed Ledger. Yes, this is an official release date.”NEM (XEM)：05 November 2019 Innovation Forum — Kyiv NEM Foundation Council Member Anton Bosenko will be speaking in the upcoming International Innovation Forum in Kyiv on November 5, 2019.TomoChain (TOMO):05 November 2019 TomoX Testnet “Mark your calendar as TomoX testnet will be live on Tuesday, Nov 5th!”aelf (ELF):05 November 2019 Bug Bounty Program Ends On Oct 24th, 2019 aelf’s biggest bug bounty will launch with a large reward pool. The event will run for almost 2 weeks.ICON (ICX):05 November 2019 Seoul Meetup “We are pleased to announce that the ICON x Steem DApp SEOUL MEETUP will be held in the ICON Lounge on November 5th.”Utrust (UTK):05 November 2019 Lisbon Meetup “We’re hosting a meetup for anyone interested in blockchain & crypto adoption! Industry leaders like Cointelegraph, BetProtocol & others…”Siacoin (SC):05 November 2019 Zurich Meetup “Join us Tuesday, Nov 5th in Zurich for a Sia meetup with CEO David, and devs Chris and PJ at@impacthubzurich.”OKB (OKB):05 November 2019 Simulation USDT Futures “NEW LAUNCH: The much-awaited $USDT-Margined Futures Trading will soon be available on #OKEx… Simulation launching Nov 5”
Encrypted project calendar（November 6, 2019）
STEEM/Steem:The Steem (STEEM) SteemFest 4 conference will be held in Bangkok from November 6th to 10th.KIM/Kimcoin:Kimcoin (KIM) Bitfinex will be online at KIM on November 6, 2019 at 12:00 (UTC).Nebulas (NAS):06 November 2019 Burn Deadline “Be sure to read this announcement & burn your $NAT by November 6th, 3:00p.m. (UTC+8, Beijing time).”Power Ledger (POWR):06 November 2019 Book Launch ATTN Perth Power Ledger community, we will be hosting renowned economist Ross Garnaut at our WA office for the launch of his latest book…
Encrypted project calendar（November 7, 2019）
XRP (XRP)： 07 November 2019 Swell 2019 Ripple hosts Swell from November 7th — 8th in Singapore.BTC/Bitcoin:Malta The A.I. and Blockchain summit will be held in Malta from November 7th to 8th.Waves (WAVES):07 November 2019 Joins Odyssey “#Waves is joining Odyssey… We’re kicking off on Nov. 7 at Polaris…”Komodo (KMD)and 1 other: 07 November 2019 Block Party Amsterdam Block Party Amsterdam in Amsterdam from 17:30–22:00.Horizen (ZEN):07 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 8, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2nd Global Digital Mining Summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany from October 8th to 10th.IOTX/IoTeX:IoTex (IOTX) will participate in the CES Expo on November 08TOP (TOP):08 November 2019 Mainnet Launch “So excited to announce that on November 8th, TOP Network will officially launch the mainnet…”OKB (OKB):08 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Valencia “Meet us at our next OKEx Talks in Valencia on 8 Nov with speaker Gustavo Segovia@sepu85who will look at the benefits of creating
Encrypted project calendar（November 9, 2019）
CENNZ/Centrality:Centrality (CENNZ) will meet in InsurTechNZ Connect — Insurance and Blockchain on October 9th in Auckland.HTMLCOIN (HTML):09 November 2019 (or earlier) Mandatory Wallet Update Mandatory Wallet Update: there will be a soft fork on our blockchain. This update adds header signature verification on block 997,655.
Encrypted project calendar（November 10, 2019）
Bibox Token (BIX):10 November 2019 Bibox Summit “Bibox Summit 2019 — Maximizing Profit On Uptrend Season” from 1 PM — 5 PM (ITV) in Ho Chi Minh City.
Encrypted project calendar（November 11, 2019）
PAX/Paxos Standard:Paxos Standard (PAX) 2019 Singapore Financial Technology Festival will be held from November 11th to 15th, and Paxos Standard will attend the conference.Crypto.com Coin (CRO):and 3 others 11 November 2019 Capital Warm-up Party Capital Warm-up Party in Singapore.GoldCoin (GLC):11 November 2019 Reverse Bitcoin Hardfork The GoldCoin (GLC) Team will be “Reverse Hard Forking” the Bitcoin (BTC) Blockchain…”Horizen (ZEN):11 November 2019 (or earlier) Horizen Giveaway — Nodes Horizen Giveaway — Win Free Node Hosting! Entries before November 11th.SINOVATE (SIN):11 November 2019 Roadmap V3 SINOVATE (SIN) Roadmap V3 will be released with new upcoming technologies and proof of concepts!
Encrypted project calendar（November 12, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The CoinMarketCap Global Conference will be held at the Victoria Theatre in Singapore from November 12th to 13thBinance Coin (BNB)and 7 others: 12 November 2019 CMC Global Conference “The first-ever CoinMarketCap large-scale event: A one-of-a-kind blockchain / crypto experience like you’ve never experienced before.”Aion (AION)and 17 others: 12 November 2019 The Capital The Capital conference from November 12–13 in Singapore.Loom Network (LOOM):12 November 2019 Transfer Gateway Update “If you have a dapp that relies on the Transfer Gateway, follow the instructions below to make sure you’re prepared.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 13, 2019）
Fetch.ai (FET):13 November 2019 Cambridge Meetup “Join us for a@Fetch_ai#Cambridge #meetup on 13 November@pantonarms1.”Binance Coin (BNB)and 5 others: 13 November 2019 Blockchain Expo N.A. “It will bring together key industries from across the globe for two days of top-level content and discussion across 5 co-located events…”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 Dnipro, Ukraine- Talks Join us in Dnipro as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour on 11 Nov.Centrality (CENNZ):13 November 2019 AMA Meetup “Ask our CEO@aaronmcdnzanything in person! Join the AMA meetup on 13 November in Singapore.”OKB (OKB):13 November 2019 OKEx Cryptotour Dnipro “OKEx Cryptour Ukraine 2019 — Dnipro” in Dnipro from 6–9 PM (EET).
Encrypted project calendar（November 14, 2019）
BTC/Bitcoin:The 2019 BlockShow Asia Summit will be held at Marina Bay Sands, Singapore from November 14th to 15th.Binance Coin (BNB):and 4 others 14 November 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 BlockShow Asia 2019 at Marina Bay Sands Expo, Singapore from November 14–15.Basic Attention Token (BAT): 14 November 2019 London Privacy Meetup “If you’re in London on Nov. 14th, don’t miss our privacy meetup! The Brave research team, our CPO@johnnyryan, as well as@UoE_EFIHorizen (ZEN):14 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.IOTA (MIOTA):14 November 2019 Berlin Meetup From Construction to Smart City: IOTA, Maschinenraum & Thinkt Digital will explain, using concrete use cases, how to gain real value from..Dash (DASH):14 November 2019 Q3 Summary Call “Dash Core Group Q3 2019 Summary Call — Thursday, 14 November 2019”NEO (NEO):14 November 2019 NeoFest Singapore Meetup “Glad to have@Nicholas_Mertenfrom DataDash as our host for #NeoFest Singapore meetup on 14th Nov!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 15, 2019）
TRON (TRX):15 November 2019 Cross-chain Project “The #TRON cross-chain project will be available on Nov. 15th”Bluzelle (BLZ):15 November 2019 (or earlier) CURIE Release CURIE release expected by early November 2019.Zebi (ZCO):15 November 2019 ZEBI Token Swap Ends “… We will give 90 days to all the ERC 20 token holders to swap out their tokens into Zebi coins.”OKB (OKB):15 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Vilnius “Join us for a meetup on 15 Nov (Fri) for our 1st ever Talks in Vilnius, Lithuania.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 16, 2019）
Bancor (BNT): and 2 others 16 November 2019 Crypto DeFiance-Singapore “Crypto DeFiance is a new global DeFi event embracing established innovators, financial market disruptors, DApp developers…”NEM (XEM):16 November 2019 Developer’s Event “BLOCKCHAIN: Creation of Multifirma services” from 10:50 AM — 2 PM.
Encrypted project calendar（November 17, 2019）
OKB (OKB):17 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Lagos Join us on 17 Nov for another OKEx Talks, discussing the “Life of a Crypto Trader”.
Encrypted project calendar（November 18, 2019）
Maker (MKR):18 November 2019 MCD Launch “BIG changes to terminology are coming with the launch of MCD on Nov. 18th Say hello to Vaults, Dai, and Sai.”
Encrypted project calendar（November 19, 2019）
Lisk (LSK):19 November 2019 Lisk.js “We are excited to announce liskjs2019 will take place on November 19th. This all day blockchain event will include…”
Encrypted project calendar（November 20, 2019）
OKB (OKB):20 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Odessa Ukr “Join us in Odessa as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”
Encrypted project calendar（November 21, 2019）
Cardano (ADA):and 2 others 21 November 2019 Meetup Netherlands (AMS) “This meetup is all about how to decentralize a blockchain, the problems and differences between Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake…”Cappasity (CAPP):21 November 2019 Virtuality Paris 2019 “Cappasity to demonstrate its solution for the interactive shopping experience at Virtuality Paris 2019.”Horizen (ZEN):21 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.OKB (OKB):21 November 2019 OKEx Talks — Johannesburg “Join us the largest city of South Africa — Johannesburg where we will host our OKEx Talks on the 21st Nov.”IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key tech.OKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 22, 2019）
IOST (IOST):22 November 2019 Singapore Workshop Join the Institute of Blockchain for their 2nd IOST technical workshop in Singapore on 22 Nov 2019. The workshop includes IOST’s key techOKB (OKB):22 November 2019 St. Petersberg Talks “Join us in St. Petersberg on 22 Nov as we answer your questions on Crypto Security. “
Encrypted project calendar（November 27, 2019）
OKB (OKB):27 November 2019 OKEx Cryptour Vinnytsia “Join us in Vinnytsia as we journey through Ukraine for our OKEx Cryptour!”Fetch.ai (FET):27 November 2019 London Meetup “Join us on 27 November@primalbasehqto hear an exciting progress report as we prepare for the launch of our #mainnet”
Encrypted project calendar（November 28, 2019）
Horizen (ZEN):28 November 2019 Weekly Insider Team updates at 3:30 PM UTC/ 11:30 AM EDT: Engineering, Node network, Product/UX, Helpdesk, Legal, BD, Marketing, CEO Closing thoughts, AMA.
Encrypted project calendar（November 30, 2019）
Ethos (ETHOS):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Rebranding “In November, we unveil the broker token, a dynamic utility token to power our commission-free crypto trading and broker platform, Voyager.”Digitex Futures (DGTX):30 November 2019 Public Testnet Launch “…We can expect to see the world’s first zero-commission futures trading platform live on the Ethereum public testnet from 30th November.”Monero (XMR):30 November 2019 Protocol Upgrade “Preliminary information thread regarding the scheduled protocol upgrade of November 30.”Chiliz (CHZ):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Fiat to CHZ Exchanges “We will add another two fiat to $CHZ exchanges in November…”Skrumble Network (SKM):30 November 2019 (or earlier) P2P & Group Calling “P2P & Group Video Calling,” during November 2019.Aergo (AERGO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mainnet 2.0 Upgrade Mainnet 2.0 Protocol update by end of November.Akropolis (AKRO):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Beta Release “All functionality has been deployed to mainnet.”Nash Exchange (NEX):30 November 2019 (or earlier) Mobile Strategy Phase 2 “Phase 2 of our mobile strategy will be live soon with our wallet and portfolio app hitting stores in November!”
While Bitcoin becoming a currency may have been the goal of Nakamoto and others, it is a goal that has not widely been accepted. Economist Rebuts Sentiment That Bitcoin Is a Currency. On July 4th, Steve Hanke, an economist at John Hopkins University and foreign exchange trader, said that he doesn’t think Bitcoin is a currency. Bitcoin has been tightly correlated with the stock market since the start of 2020. If a warning from a global economist comes true, and the correlation between crypto and stocks remains, a second-leg down could be imminent. Economist Warns Of Second-Leg Down In Stocks, As Much As A 40% Drop. The current economic contraction is the worst in years. The Economist - World News, Politics, Economics, Business & Finance The Economist today Sunday, July 26th 2020. News analysis. International The pandemic shows the urgency of reforming care for Bulls to buy up bitcoin lows. Just over a week ago, the price of bitcoin dropped an unprecedented 50%, falling from $7,700 to $3,800 in 24 hours. However, that price-point didn’t last for long The stock market faces a second, Great Depression-style downturn if investors realize how long-lasting the coronavirus' fallout will be, economist Gary Shilling said.
LIVE Warren Buffett 2020 Future of Bitcoin Investments ...
Never take one person's opinion for financial guidance. There are multiple strategies and not all strategies fit all people. Our videos ARE NOT financial advice. Sagona-Stophel, Katherine."Bitcoin 101 white paper". ECONOMICS EXPLAINED IS MADE POSSIBLE BY OUR PATREON COMMUNITY 👊🙏 Support EE by becoming a Patron today! 👉 https://www.patreon.com ... In this podcast, I give facts and my opinion about Bitcoin. If you like the content and find it informative, please like, comment, and subscribe. Your faithful support helps me create quality ... We take a look at diffrent cryptos and see were the stock market is headed. #Crypto #Bitcoin #tiktok. Warren Edward Buffett (/ˈbʌfɪt/; born August 30, 1930) is an American investor, business tycoon, and philanthropist, who is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.